Deficits Are Forcing the Fed Back Into Expansion | Lyn Alden
In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook
(09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments
(12:49) Grayscale Ad
(13:27) Government Shutdown Impact
(15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies
(19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness
(22:49) The State of the Labor Market
(26:09) Grayscale Ad
(26:56) Should the Fed Cut?
(30:56) How We Fight Inflation
(34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet
(41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints
(45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity
(48:43) Active Treasury Issuance
(51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity
(53:03) The Debasement Trade
(57:54) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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58:26
How Financialization Broke Markets & Hollowed Out America | Weekly Roundup
This week, joined by Hunter Hopcroft to unpack the era of hyper-financialization and how credit creation, passive investing, and globalization have reshaped capitalism and market structure. We also dive into current volatility spikes, liquidity distortions, gold’s surge, and the setup for a year-end rally. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3LM4r8zRfHUIQxNqoPwrd7SFXsbqZo8/view?usp=sharing
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) Hunter Hopcroft
(03:57) The Old Market Structure
(07:39) The Line Between Debt & Equity
(09:53) The Financialization Model
(18:15) Crowding Out the Private Sector
(23:23) Signal from Credit Spreads
(27:38) The Effect of Passive & Private Credit
(29:57) Market Structure Endgame
(34:04) The Government & Markets
(39:07) Learn More About Hunter
(39:47) Hunter Takeaways
(43:18) Quant Corner
(50:17) Plumbing Breakdown
(53:31) Gold’s Parabolic Run
(55:02) Markets After OI Blowouts
(57:02) Reasons to be Bullish
(59:55) Crypto & US-China Meeting
(1:04:09) Boomer Retirement Complex
(1:06:22) Something Has to Change
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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1:08:50
Institutional Demand for Crypto is Accelerating | Matt Hougan
In this episode, CIO of Bitwise Matt Hougan joins us live from DAS London to discuss the surging institutional demand for crypto, the accelerating growth of crypto ETFs, the impact of SEC rule changes, the rise of perpetuals and stablecoins, and how allocations from major institutions are expanding rapidly. Matt highlights why crypto is becoming mainstream in traditional finance and why the ETF landscape is only just beginning. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:42) Institutional Demand for Crypto
(02:10) Why 2025 ETF Flows Will Beat 2024
(03:10) Market Impact of ETFs
(05:37) SEC Authorizing In-Kind ETF
(06:52) Crypto Crash Stress Test
(08:05) Expedited SEC Approval
(09:42) The Future of Crypto ETFs
(12:08) Market Perp-ification & Stablecoin TAM
(17:10) Exotic ETF Structures & Retail Access
(19:15) ETF Tail Risks
(20:53) Options & the Expanding ETF Landscape
(24:05) What Excites Institutions?
(26:34) The Future of Crypto Allocations
(30:30) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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31:48
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31:48
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
This week, we’re joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital live from DAS London to break down the global liquidity cycle, the hidden recession and re-acceleration in the U.S., the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, China’s liquidity surge and stablecoin risks, and Europe’s structural challenges. We close with why today’s environment is truly unique in 4,000 years of monetary history. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:51) Where Are We in the Global Liquidity Cycle?
(05:26) Main St. Recession & Economic Rebound
(08:49) GDP vs Liquidity Cycles
(10:33) QE, Liquidity & Gold vs BTC
(15:44) No 4-Year Cycle But Still Bullish
(20:05) Stablecoins & China
(27:01) Europe’s Economic Struggles
(29:15) Developed Nation Decline
(34:55) How Unique is this Moment?
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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37:00
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37:00
Crypto's Biggest Liquidation, DAT Strategies, & The Purification Trade | Jeff Park
In this episode, CIO of ProCap Jeff Park unpacks the recent crypto market meltdown, the dangers of over-leveraging in perpetual futures, and why Bitcoin could now front-run altcoins. He also gives insights into ProCap’s work as a Bitcoin treasury company, the future of DATs, and reframes the “debasement trade” as a “purification trade” in today’s distorted macro environment. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:01) Crypto Meltdown Post-Mortem
(07:09) Where Do Markets Go From Here?
(08:26) Evolving DAT Strategy
(16:17) Debasement vs. Purification Trade
(21:25) What’s Different this Time?
(26:31) The Cost of Years of Debasement
(31:42) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
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Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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