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The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that’s expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump announced the agreement Tuesday on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in talks, implored the US leader to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it did not meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis.
Trump said he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as long as Iran agrees to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

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President Donald Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time on April 7. Is this a bluff intended to push Tehran to the negotiating table, or a credible threat?

With the deadline nearing, Iran rejected the latest US proposal for a deal to end the war and continued regional strikes. Trump intensified his threats — warning a “civilization will die tonight” — and the US reattacked Iran’s Kharg island. Further escalation appears more likely than negotiations. That’s consistent with our base case that the war will see a sharp escalation followed by a shift to lower-intensity fighting.

Treasuries fell amid mounting oil prices in the run-up to US President Donald Trump’s late-Tuesday deadline for Iran to agree to terms for ending American attacks.

The declines lifted yields by as much as five basis points, with long-maturity tenors rising most. Ten- and 30-year yields reached session highs against an array of conflicting signals about whether Trump’s threats of mass destruction are likely to come to pass.

Oil prices — a principal driver of Treasury yields since the US assault on Iran began Feb. 28 — rose, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures by as much as 4.6% from Monday’s multi-year high close. Yields reached year-to-date highs in late March as energy prices mounted, however they retreated from those levels amid mounting fears the oil shock will hit economic growth.

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President Donald Trump ramped up his threats ahead of a deadline he’s imposed for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on civilian infrastructure, while Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal.
“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said in a press conference Monday at the White House, in an apparent reference to his ultimatum to Iran that expires at 8 p.m. on Tuesday.
“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated, by 12 o’clock tomorrow night,” Trump said. “Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” he added, noting that “it’ll happen over a period of four hours, if we wanted to. We don’t want that to happen.”
Trump told reporters earlier on Monday that it was “highly unlikely” that he’d move the deadline again. Iran, meanwhile, reportedly passed to mediator Pakistan a rejection of a ceasefire proposal.
The regime demanded a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction efforts, in addition to protocol for safe passage through Hormuz, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. The rejection is the latest blow to efforts to end the month-long war that has triggered a global energy crisis.
US allies are reportedly pressing for a last-minute deal with Iran, as Trump extended his deadline to Tuesday for Tehran to reopen the vital waterway. Trump during his press conference noted that free traffic of oil in Hormuz must be part of any deal to end the war.
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