The Road to Autonomy

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana dropping a Mike Tyson-like right hook on Uber during a Bloomberg interview, exposing the reality of their pending divorce just as Uber reported earnings.
With Uber projecting 700 fully driverless vehicles by year-end, Grayson and Walt point out that over 71% of those are Waymo vehicles, making Uber’s climb to its 10,000-vehicle goal by 2028 substantially harder without their top partner.
While Uber attempts to shift its narrative toward delivery and highlights alternative partners such as Avride, Motional, and Zoox, Walt questions Uber’s timeline claiming autonomous cost-per-trip parity won’t happen until the end of the decade.
Grayson and Walt also analyze the sudden departure of Uber’s President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Jill Hazelbaker, to OpenAI, and Tesla’s pivot to wind down Cybertruck production by the middle of next year to make room for more Cybercab capacity at Giga Texas.
Out in the field, Special Field Correspondent Spencer witnessed the birth of a brand-new Waymo depot being loaded with vehicles overnight, while becoming the first person to ride in Robotaxi in Fort Worth. In Orlando, Grayson confirmed Waymo has opened a second depot.
In autonomous trucking, Kodiak is at 99% readiness and on track for driver-out operations by year-end. Operating on three different OEM platforms (PACCAR International and Daimler Truck), Kodiak provided clear guidance, projecting five unsupervised trucks over the road by year-end, 200 by 2027, and 5,000 by 2029.
Walt highlights Kodiak’s extreme capital efficiency, noting their sub-$40 million cash burn compared to Aurora’s $200 million-plus burn for the same $3 million in quarterly revenue. Daimler Truck’s Torc is also aiming to launch driver-out trucks on public roads before the end of 2026.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu Apollo Go is now live in 22 cities doing 250,000 fully driverless rides a week in China, WeRide is preparing to launch in Denmark by the first half of 2027, Wayve and Uber are launching safety-driver testing in Japan by year-end, and Marti Technologies is getting ready to deploy in Turkey.

Episode Chapters
0:00 Waymo’s Right Hook to Uber
5:11 Uber’s 700 Robotaxis
14:50 Uber's Narrative Pivot to Delivery
18:31 Uber's Jill Hazelbaker Departs for OpenAI
20:31 Winding Down Cybertruck for Cybercab
23:20 Tesla Robotaxi & Waymo Market Expansions
25:27 Lyft Earnings
28:54 Kodiak Earnings
36:14 Torc Aims for 2026 Driver-Out
37:26 Red Tape Desk: Texas Elections & the Threat of Local Robotaxi Control
39:43 Foreign Autonomy Desk
45:21 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

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This week on Autonomy Signals presented by KPMG, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss the dark money campaign trying to stop robotaxis in the United States, Japan’s new certification framework for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, and Reliable Robotics autonomous regional cargo aircraft.
A dark money campaign is working to stop robotaxis before they reach new markets. The Coalition for Accountability in Road Safety (CARS) has spent over $2.6 million on ads opposing autonomous vehicles in DC, outspending the mayoral candidates, raising questions as to who is funding the group.
Japan is moving the other way and making autonomy a national priority. Starting in December, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) will introduce a unified certification framework for SAE Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles that no longer need steering wheels, brake pedals or mirrors.
Autonomous cargo flight is getting closer. Reliable Robotics completed a flight in Albuquerque where software handled taxiing, takeoff and landing on a Cessna Grand Caravan, supervised by a pilot 700 miles away in California. The company is targeting its first FAA approvals by the end of 2027, though fully uncrewed cargo flights remain years away.

Episode Chapters
0:00 KPMG Sponsor Introduction
1:58 Signal 1: Dark-Money Coalitions Are Trying to Stop Robotaxis
37:01 Signal 2: Japan Greenlights Full Autonomy
55:02 Signal 3: Cleared for Autonomous Takeoff

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy provides Institutional Intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

This Week in The Autonomy Economy is the briefing investors and industry leaders read every Sunday as they prepare for the week ahead. Original insight and commentary on the Autonomy Economy.

📬 Sign up for the newsletter at https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

Follow The Road to Autonomy Indices at https://indices.roadtoautonomy.com/
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Cankut Durgun, Co-Founder, President & COO, Martí, joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss building Türkiye’s robotaxi network.
Martí is positioning itself as the demand aggregator and fleet operator for robotaxis in Türkiye, leveraging a ride hailing footprint across 40 cities representing approximately 90% of national GDP.
Its micromobility operation, which manages tens of thousands of vehicles through a network of charging, maintenance and parking depots, gives Martí an operational playbook that transfers directly to robotaxi fleets. With a 19x spread between peak and trough hourly demand, Martí envisions a hybrid network where robotaxis serve base load demand and human drivers absorb the peaks.
Martí is executing a multi partner strategy, with announced partnerships with Tensor and CalmCar and advanced discussions with providers across the US, China and other markets. The thesis is that the performance gap between autonomous driving stacks is narrowing, pointing to a steady state market of dozens of providers rather than one or two.
Türkiye’s National Artificial Intelligence Action Plan, signed into force by President Erdoğan, establishes a regulatory framework, with over a dozen references to autonomous vehicles covering technical parameters, pilot conditions and the path to scale.
Today, the unit economics present a structural challenge as ride hailing revenue per kilometer in Türkiye is 3x to 4x lower than in the US, while import taxes can double vehicle costs, requiring an additional 70% to 80% cost reduction beyond US viability before robotaxis become economical in the Turkish market.
Over the longer term, Türkiye’s customs union with the EU, its established automotive manufacturing base in Bursa and the national EV brand Togg, with its autonomy arm, could offer a path to domestically produced autonomous vehicles.

Episode Chapters
00:00 Martí’s Robotaxi Strategy in Türkiye
07:34 Planning Robotaxi Depots in Istanbul
09:21 Airport Proximity and Energy Access
14:17 CalmCar Testing and Pilot Timelines
17:44 Financing Robotaxi Fleets
19:25 Robotaxi Economics in Türkiye vs the US
22:24 Manufacturing Autonomous Vehicles in Türkiye
28:37 Evaluating Autonomous Driving Partners
31:10 Why Martí Chose a Multi Partner Strategy
35:46 Martí as the Local Partner
36:49 Dedicated vs Mixed Robotaxi Tiers
42:52 Robotaxi Utilization and Ride Share
44:48 The Future of Martí
47:30 AUTNMY AI
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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

📬 Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expanded partnership with Toyota, bringing factory-line integration to an autonomous bZ4X fleet in Japan by 2027.
With the Toyota and Hyundai manufacturing partnerships, Grayson says Waymo now has the manufacturing capacity and capital to dominate the robotaxi market globally, while Walt views the Toyota partnership as a volume ramp heading into 2030 that poses a serious threat to traditional rideshare.
Beyond robotaxis, Grayson and Walt analyze the partnership’s potential to introduce personally owned autonomous vehicles, which could accelerate the consumer trend toward one-car households. They also question Alphabet’s decision to omit the landmark Toyota announcement from its earnings report, even as Waymo added 250 square miles of territory across five cities in a single week.
In Orlando, Grayson spent five hours riding in Waymo’s around its 120-square-mile territory, observing hundreds of Ojais at a massive depot near the airport. However, access restrictions at Orlando International Airport (MCO) and the Brightline station continue to choke off high-value transit corridors, underscored by a chaotic pickup attempt at a nearby Amazon facility.
In Houston, Tesla expanded Robotaxi’s service area to 254-square-miles in the shape of a rocket ship. Over in autonomous trucking Aurora delayed its 200-truck milestone to February due to supply chain issues and reduced guidance, contrasting with Kodiak’s binding 75-truck order and leaner cash burn.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, XPENG received an SAE Level 4 demonstration permit in Guangzhou, Baidu Apollo Go received a SAE Level 4 special operating permit from Switzerland’s Federal Roads Office and Tesla’s FSD Supervised was granted approval in Latvia.

Episode Chapters
0:00 Waymo and Toyota Partnership
06:36 Personally Owned Waymo Toyota Vehicles
09:18 Waymo's Volume Ramp to 2030 and the Impact on Rideshare
11:53 Waymo Expands Service Coverage by 250 Square Miles
13:15 Alphabet Earnings
16:08 Waymo's California Advantage
18:20 Orlando Field Report
31:28 Tesla Robotaxi in Orlando Field Report
33:17 Tesla Robotaxi Houston Expansion
35:47 Tesla Extends Robotaxi Service Hours
37:47 Aurora Delays Its Truck Milestone
41:28 Non Binding vs. Binding Autonomous Trucking Deals
46:13 Gatik Class 7 Truck Spotted in Plano
51:46 Rivian's Autonomy Plans
55:07 Foreign Autonomy Desk
1:00:08 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

📬 Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Signals presented by KPMG, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Tesla’s Texas robotaxi fleet crossing 1,000 vehicles, Bedrock Robotics raising $600 million to automate construction, and Purdue researchers building a drone that can track a person without GPS.
Tesla’s registered Texas robotaxi fleet crossed 1,050 vehicles, with Cybercabs now making up more than half the fleet after a tenfold ramp in Austin during October. The surge proves Tesla can build vehicles faster than it can deploy them, but with paid Cybercab rides limited to Austin and highways, rail crossings and 24/7 operation still locked, fleet scale does not establish leadership over Waymo, which logs nearly four million rider only miles a week.
Bedrock Robotics raised $600 million in a Series C led by CapitalG and Emergence Capital, valuing the two year old company at $4.1 billion. Retrofit kits that automate existing excavators offer the fastest path to revenue as skilled operators retire, though hidden boulders, wet ground and OEM control over integration could slow the jump from paid projects to repeat orders.
Purdue University researchers built a drone that tracks a running person under dense forest canopy with all processing onboard, without GPS or satellite navigation. When a university lab can build this, the algorithm stops being a moat, and the advantage for defense and search and rescue buyers shifts to field validation, manufacturing and accountable operation.

Episode Chapters
0:00 KPMG Sponsor Introduction
1:47 Signal 1: Tesla Floods Texas With Cybercabs
27:16 Signal 2: Bedrock Robotics Raises $600 Million
50:35 Signal 3: Purdue Builds a Drone That Can Find You

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy provides Institutional Intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.

This Week in The Autonomy Economy is the briefing investors and industry leaders read every Sunday as they prepare for the week ahead. Original insight and commentary on the Autonomy Economy.

📬 Sign up for the newsletter at https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

Follow The Road to Autonomy Indices at https://indices.roadtoautonomy.com/
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.