The Macro Trading Floor

• Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

  Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?

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• Recession Risks & Reflexivity

  Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets. To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/

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  36:18
• Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!

  This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell. Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg

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  32:05
• The Bond Vigilantes Are Here

  Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US.  Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso Peccatiello Want to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent Donnelly Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/

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  36:48
• You Ready For Liberation Day?

  Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/

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  36:31

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