The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.
Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out
11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump
15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low
18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is
24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues
29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa
35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system
39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage
51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast
52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along
57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver
1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them
1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if
1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority
1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both
1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition
1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list
1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight
1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out
1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act
1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports
1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983
1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov, was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke
1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong
1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events
2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere
2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain
2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain
2:08:15 Ask Chuck
2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?
2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?
2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?
2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?
2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?
2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?
2:35:45 College football recap
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along
06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver
12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them
18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if
22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority
26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both
35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition
39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list
45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight
54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out
11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump
15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low
18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is
24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues
29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa
35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system
39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage
48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act
49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports
50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983
51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov, was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke
55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong
57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events
1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere
1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain
1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain
1:07:30 Ask Chuck
1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?
1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?
1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?
1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?
1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?
1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?
1:35:00 College football recap
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion
09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash
12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers
20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House
28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him
33:00 How an industry captures a government
39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn
49:00 Ask Chuck
49:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?
54:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?
1:02:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?
1:08:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?
1:13:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?
1:19:30 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible.

Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion
09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash
12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers
20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House
28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him
33:00 How an industry captures a government
39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn
52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast
54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple
1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban
1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem
1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean
1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition
1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war
1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario
1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash
1:55:00 Ask Chuck
1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?
2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?
2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?
2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?
2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?
2:25:30 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.