The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad
12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues
17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters
19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election
24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map
30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification
36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity
43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?
45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi
51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out
54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it
1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day
1:19:00 Ask Chuck
1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?
1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?
1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?
1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out
1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?
1:39:00 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?
04:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN
08:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney
12:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning
17:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money
24:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums
29:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman
36:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback
38:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation
45:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad
12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues
17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters
19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election
24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map
30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification
36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity
43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?
45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi
51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out
54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it
1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day
1:21:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:23:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?
1:25:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN
1:29:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney
1:33:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning
1:38:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money
1:45:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums
1:50:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman
1:57:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback
1:59:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation
2:06:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward
2:15:00 Ask Chuck
2:15:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?
2:19:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?
2:24:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?
2:28:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out
2:29:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?
2:35:00 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.

Then, Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Chuck get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over.

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument
06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party
10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami
12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary
14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy
15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton
18:45 Congress needs to investigate
27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?
32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother
38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it
43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?
47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now?
56:45 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast
58:15 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris
1:00:45 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison
1:04:15 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten
1:08:30 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw
1:11:45 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office
1:20:15 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror
1:24:15 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812
1:28:00 Laying out the city of New York
1:31:00 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets
1:39:15 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically
1:44:15 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom
1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip
1:52:15 #1 North Carolina
1:53:00 #2 Ohio
1:54:15 #3 Texas
1:55:30 #4 Alaska
1:56:00 #5 Maine
1:57:15 #6 Kansas
1:58:30 #7 Michigan
2:00:00 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska
2:05:00 Ask Chuck
2:05:15 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?
2:11:15 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?
2:15:15 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?
2:17:30 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?
2:20:30 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument
06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party
10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami
12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary
14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy
15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton
18:45 Congress needs to investigate
27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?
32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother
38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it
43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?
47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now?
0:54:15 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip
0:54:30 #1 North Carolina
0:55:15 #2 Ohio
0:56:30 #3 Texas
0:57:45 #4 Alaska
0:58:15 #5 Maine
0:59:30 #6 Kansas
1:00:45 #7 Michigan
1:02:15 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska
1:07:15 Ask Chuck
1:07:30 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?
1:13:30 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?
1:17:30 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?
1:19:45 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?
1:22:45 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.