UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s positive outlook for US equities, reflects on why equity markets have shown resiliency despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, outlines the risk factors that could trigger volatility, and reviews Q1 earnings results at the mid-point. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including an outlook for rates, and thoughts around broader fixed income positioning. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras

The Wile E Coyote effect—running off the edge of a cliff, and continuing to run before eventually gravity takes over—remains evident for developed economy consumers. UK March retail sales (which adjust for price effects) showed rising volumes of oil and non-oil sales. The surge in oil volumes means part of the UK’s oil reserves are stored in consumers' cars. The stronger non-oil sales signal consumers will cut savings rates to maintain (or increase) living standards. This cannot carry on forever, but economic gravity has yet to exert itself.

Michael Kass is a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets with Baron Capital. We discuss why investors should consider global diversification in an equity portfolio, and what a globally resilient portfolio might consist of. Plus, a look at opportunities and risk considerations specific to Emerging Market equities, along with broader investment trends in focus across Emerging Markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted “several” Gulf countries asked the US for dollar swap lines to cover short-term funding needs from the Gulf war. Where travel has collapsed, or where plunging oil and gas volumes are not offset by price effects, near-term economic support is needed. Longer-term reconstruction and rearmament must be paid for. Sovereign wealth funds may be used in the future, but swaps are less disruptive near-term funding. The economic question is whether this dollar income is spent in the US, or whether dollars are sold and the proceeds spent elsewhere.