ChinaTalk

• Second Breakfast: Xi-Trump, Taiwan Deterrence, Tibetan Buddhism, Antietam

  Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself Chapters 02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling 05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did? 08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations 24:12 Blockades 28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology 43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections 44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Japan's New Prime Minister: What to Expect

  Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy. Chapters: 00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama 07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style 24:27 National Defense and International Relations 40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability 48:33 Implications of a Minority Government 01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee

  Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack. We discuss… Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones, The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles, Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces, How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield. Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate. Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• PLA Purges and How Xi Rules with Jon Czin

  Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover: How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao. Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy. Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s. Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations. Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think. Outtro Music: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Second Breakfast: Venezuela, Shutdowns, PE + Army, E.B. Sledge

  Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun. 00:00 Venezuela 16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations 34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters 46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy 48:44 Sledge Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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