Doom Debates!

Bestselling author Robert Wright and I react to Jensen Huang’s resignation from Nvidia, METR’s report that AI is doubling Anthropic’s research speed, and whether AI safety can ever be formally verified. Plus:
Where AI’s economic value will accrue;
My AI outperforming my CPA;
What Jensen’s fall means for Anthropic’s IPO;
And an anonymous Chinese AI journalist on how it all looks from Beijing.
Enjoy another edition of the Nonzero x Doom Debates collab!
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZZEfe2OmAE
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:30 — Introductions
00:01:32 — Jensen Huang Resigns from Nvidia
00:05:02 — Who’s Defending Jensen?
00:10:09 — What Did Jensen Do Wrong?
00:12:23 — Was Alice Huang a Chinese Spy?
00:18:03 — Does Decapitation Work?
00:21:34 — The Great Man Theory of Tech
00:23:58 — Where Will AI’s Value Accrue?
00:27:14 — What’s Next for Jensen?
00:29:33 — METR: AI Is Doubling Anthropic’s Research Speed
00:35:01 — AI Is Solving Open Math Problems
00:37:24 — AI Agents Negotiating Deals
00:40:03 — My AI vs. My CPA
00:42:38 — Bob’s AI Caught His Doctor’s Error
00:44:20 — Whatever Happened to Hallucinations?
00:45:35 — Formal Verification and Lean
00:50:47 — Andrew Wiles and the Human Cost
00:54:10 — The All-In Podcast’s Blind Spot
00:57:15 — Can We Formally Verify Alignment?
00:59:55 — Yudkowsky vs. Irving at ILIAD
01:01:21 — Will Jensen’s Fall Help Anthropic’s IPO?
01:06:48 — The March for an AI Treaty
01:08:02 — Introducing Walter, a Chinese AI Journalist
01:09:22 — How China Reacted to Jensen’s Resignation
01:15:43 — Chinese Theories About Anthropic’s Role
01:22:47 — How China Censored the Spy Allegation
01:24:33 — Does China Trust an AI Pause?
01:26:59 — AI Layoffs and a Chili Sauce Boycott
01:32:50 — Does Beijing Listen to Public Opinion?
01:36:42 — China’s Limits on AI Companions for Kids
01:39:29 — Will China Move on Taiwan?
Links
ROBERT WRIGHT & NONZERO
Subscribe to The NonZero Newsletter
The God Test — Bob’s 2026 book on AI
“The Age of Big Math” — Bob’s Nonzero conversation with Steven Strogatz, author of Big Math
“When AI Enters the Quantum World” — Bob’s Nonzero conversation with Scott Aaronson
Join NonZero’s Discord server
Nonzero on X (@NonzeroPods)
THE WEEK IN AI
“NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition” — the board’s announcement: Jensen Huang resigns, Harvey Jones becomes chair, CFO Colette Kress becomes interim CEO
“China’s Top Spy Agency Recruited Woman Who Targeted Jensen Huang” — the New York Times story that broke the scandal
“A Mystery Businessman Introduced Jensen Huang to His Paramour. It Was Her Husband.” — the Wall Street Journal story on Alice Huang, her husband and Megaspeed
Elon Musk: “That would be an honor” — his reply to “Elon please hire Jensen”
“Independent Assessment of AI R&D Acceleration at Anthropic in October 2026” — the METR report: progress at about twice the earlier rate, roughly 80% of it from AI
“Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All” — the AI Futures Project moves its forecast back to 2027
Daniel Kokotajlo to Anthropic: “Do you want to pace or not?” — the tweet where he drops the F-bomb
“Sharing AI progress in mathematics” — OpenAI’s release of 722 math manuscripts from an unreleased model
“Formalizing Fermat’s Last Theorem” — Anthropic on Claude’s 13-million-line Lean proof
“Kernel accepts wrong-structure projections, allowing an axiom-free proof of False” — the Lean kernel bug Liron describes
“Introducing AlphaProof Code” — Google DeepMind formally verifies the code behind the Signal messaging protocol
Eliezer Yudkowsky & Geoffrey Irving Debate — recorded at the ILIAD conference at Lighthaven
March for an AI Treaty — Saturday, November 14, in cities across the US, Canada, France and Germany
“China’s Lao Gan Ma Takes the Heat for Alleged Layoffs Due to AI” — Sixth Tone on the chili sauce maker and the boycott calls
“China Bans AI Romantic Partners, Virtual Relatives for Minors” — Sixth Tone on China’s AI companion rules
ALSO MENTIONED
“The Proof” — the NOVA documentary on Andrew Wiles and Fermat’s Last Theorem
“Provably safe systems: the only path to controllable AGI” — Max Tegmark and Steve Omohundro’s paper on formal verification for AI safety
“AI as Normal Technology” — the essay by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, Bob’s upcoming guest
DOOM DEBATES
Doom Debates on YouTube
Join the Doom Debates Discord
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Prakash Narayanan is the man behind @8teAPi, an X account with nearly 60,000 followers that reacts to AI news from a techno-optimist perspective. He’s also the co-host of AI in the AM with friend-of-the-show Nathan Labenz.
He spent almost 20 years in investment banking and private equity, used to post anonymously, and had e/acc in his profile before deciding the movement wasn’t for him.
Now he’s stepping into the spotlight to defend the pro-AI position, which is more than I can say for most of the pro-AI voices on Twitter who like to snipe at me.
We actually agree on a lot about how the technology is advancing. Prakash expects recursive self-improvement within a year and says AI may already be smarter than any individual human. He even gives a 5% chance that every human body gets discarded for a silicon substrate by 2050. And yet his P(Doom) by 2050 is 0%. Not 1%. Not 1 in 100,000. “Literally zero.”
His reasoning is that AI is a multiplayer game. A market where somebody has to pay for every data center will keep any one AI from running away with the future. He even calls the doomer scenario a “perpetual motion machine.”
We debate whether humans have any power to lose in the first place, the feasibility of a nanomachine takeover, and why someone with zero fear of doom doesn’t just floor the accelerator.
This was a fun and occasionally high intensity debate. At one point, Prakash asked if I was “crazy” for doubting that most of humanity puts P(Doom) at zero. But my view is that his forecast falls outside the epistemological “sane zone.” Take a look and see who you agree with!
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmOYwV5k0SA
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:01:24 — Introducing Prakash Narayanan
00:02:19 — How @8teAPi Went Viral
00:05:12 — Does Prakash Still Identify as e/acc?
00:07:05 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™
00:10:02 — Prakash Defends 0%: Most of Humanity Isn’t Worried
00:15:17 — Prakash’s Core Argument: AI Is a Multiplayer Game
00:20:36 — Bayesian Test: Can Anything Change Prakash’s Mind?
00:24:53 — Defining Doom
00:31:48 — The Parable of the Sliding Door
00:34:54 — Doom Train™: Will Superintelligence Outsmart Humanity?
00:42:38 — Do Humans Have Any Power to Lose?
00:54:05 — Are Doomers the Outliers?
00:56:03 — Will AI Have Empathy?
01:05:26 — Will AIs Keep Stable Goals?
01:10:41 — Hypothetical: The Paperclip Brain Laser
01:14:16 — Hypothetical: A Million Times More Change
01:19:04 — Debating Nanomachines in the Future
01:30:32 — Jobs, Status, and Prakash’s Real Fear
01:40:37 — Last Question: Why Not Floor the Accelerator?
01:52:49 — Wrap-Up
01:56:55 — March for an AI Treaty
01:58:25 — Donation Drive
Links
Prakash Narayanan on X
AI in the AM on YouTube
Nathan Labenz’s podcast, The Cognitive Revolution
Prakash’s viral 2023 thread on Palantir’s battlefield AI demo
Paul Christiano: “What failure looks like”
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Comparative advantage (Ricardo’s law)
Effective accelerationism (e/acc)
Doom Debates: Liron on AI in the AM with Nathan Labenz and Prakash
Doom Debates: Top Economist Says P(Doom) Is 0.1% — Noah Smith vs. Liron Shapira Debate
March for an AI Treaty, Saturday, November 14
Join the Doom Debates Discord
Support Doom Debates
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Brendan and Randan Steinhauser are a husband and wife team who know how to make things happen in conservative politics.
Brendan helped build the Tea Party movement and ran John Cornyn’s Senate campaign. Randan has been involved in advocacy and political campaigns in more than 30 states, including working under former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.
Now they’re bringing Republicans, parents, and faith leaders into the fight against AI catastrophe.
They know how to build political momentum, but my question is whether that will lead to action quickly enough. I'm skeptical of incremental legislation efforts and data center protests, but they argue it's necessary coalition-building that leads to superintelligence regulation.
This isn't your typical state-of-the-political-map podcast. We also get into:
Their personal AGI awakenings
How people of faith make sense of claims of Godlike AI and AI doom
My own transition to joining the Republican Party
Transhumanism, souls, and mind uploading
Parenting in the age of AI
It’s a candid conversation with a couple who are making the fight for our future feel a little more winnable. Enjoy!
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTm9tqS1Ibw
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:01:07 — Introducing Brendan & Randan Steinhauser
00:02:22 — Why I Came Out as Republican
00:04:28 — The Alliance for Secure AI
00:06:30 — Losing Control of Superintelligence
00:07:52 — Brendan, What’s Your P(Doom)?™
00:08:26 — Randan, What’s Your P(Doom)?™
00:10:47 — Finding the AI Safety Movement
00:15:04 — Trump, Republicans, and Big Tech Money
00:19:22 — Bringing Faith Leaders Into AI Safety
00:23:23 — God’s Plan and Human Extinction
00:29:43 — Priorities for Congress
00:31:42 — The Morality of AI Companies
00:34:03 — PauseAI and Employee Whistleblowers
00:43:34 — Effective Altruism and a Broader Coalition
00:48:12 — Transhumanism, Souls, and Mind Uploading
00:57:40 — Building a Machine God
01:03:20 — Raising Children Under AI Risk
01:07:35 — Data Center Protests and Movement Building
01:13:09 — Talking to People About AI Risk
01:17:32 — State Laws and the 2028 Election
01:20:38 — Getting Involved
Links
REFERENCED IN THE EPISODE
AI Risk Evaluation Act — Hawley–Blumenthal bill text
The Singularity Is Near — Ray Kurzweil
Can We Stop the AI Apocalypse? — Dan Crenshaw interviews Eliezer Yudkowsky
Magnifica Humanitas — Pope Leo XIV’s encyclical on humanity in the age of AI
Pacing the Frontier — open letter from frontier AI employees
PauseAI — the global movement to pause unsafe AI development
PauseAI US — organizing and advocacy in the United States
Jacob Coxon’s resignation statement — the insider warning discussed
Americans for Responsible Innovation — Brad Carson’s bipartisan advocacy organization
PAST DOOM DEBATES EPISODES MENTIONED
Let’s CALL OUT the AI Doom “Enablers” — Holly Elmore on working at AI labs
God vs. AI Doom: Debate with Bentham’s Bulldog
DOOM DEBATES
Join the Doom Debates Discord
Support Doom Debates — become a mission partner
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Bestselling author Robert Wright and I discuss this week’s stock market jitters, Google’s new interactive world model, and why I sometimes spend $1,000 in a day on AI agents. Plus:
The Binance hack;
An AI audit of two star economists;
Anthropic’s financial prospects;
And whether AI could crack the math behind encryption.
Enjoy another edition of the Nonzero x Doom Debates collab!
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkKpPeMVVX8
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Teaser
00:00:50 — Nonzero Doom returns
00:03:07 — A foom in slow motion
00:07:47 — Is AI winter canceled forever?
00:10:33 — Will Google’s Genie 4 lure us into the Matrix?
00:16:54 — Liron’s bull case for Google stock
00:24:34 — Does Google have big-company disease?
00:28:28 — Could a slowdown actually help Anthropic and OpenAI?
00:30:12 — Was OpenAI’s “pause” just PR?
00:40:01 — Social science judgment day is coming
00:47:12 — Why even AI’s upsides could tear society apart
00:51:12 — Does OpenAI’s alignment approach improve on Asimov?
00:55:06 — Sam and Satya pivot on alignment
00:58:34 — Crypto and the AI hacking threat
01:03:42 — Could AI crack the math behind encryption?
01:08:52 — Liron’s $1,000-a-day AI coding habit
01:15:23 — Explaining the missing productivity boost
01:17:26 — Does Anthropic’s S-1 sink the AI bubble thesis?
Links
ROBERT WRIGHT & NONZERO
Nonzero’s post for this episode — “Is an AI Bubble Bursting?”
Subscribe to The NonZero Newsletter
The God Test — Bob’s 2026 book on AI
Join NonZero’s Discord server
Nonzero on X (@NonzeroPods)
THE WEEK IN AI
“Anthropic files S-1 with the SEC for proposed initial public offering” — the IPO filing Liron calls the final nail in the coffin of the Ed Zitron camp
Where’s Your Ed At — Ed Zitron’s newsletter, home of the AI-bubble bear case
“Introducing Genie 4” — Google DeepMind’s real-time interactive world model
“Gemini 4 Argon: Built to solve your hardest problems” — Google’s new frontier training run, the “lukewarm” release
“Gemini 4 Carbon: our next frontier model” — the follow-up Google announced two weeks later
“Google Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer leaves for OpenAI” — CNBC on the talent Google has bled
“Errors in the Research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman” — Tyler Cowen’s Marginal Revolution post on the AI audit: 138 papers, 2,035 problems
Boaz Barak: “We organized the Model Spec around five core values” — the OpenAI alignment update Liron compares to Asimov’s three laws
“An Updated Model Spec for More Capable and Beneficial AI” — OpenAI’s announcement
“Sam Altman says AI means we can no longer just patch all the bugs” — TNW on the Stanford GSB talk Liron quotes on alignment and pacing
“Satya Nadella says he was wrong to think AI alignment would come with scale” — TNW on his 20VC interview: “I used to always think that alignment will just fall out. I no longer believe that.”
“OpenAI Takes Initial Steps To Address Its Alignment Problems” — Zvi Mowshowitz on OpenAI’s training “pause”
2026 Binance hack — Wikipedia’s summary of the theft Bob and Liron debate
“$2 Million+ Drained From Polymarket Traders in New Supply Chain Attack” — SecurityWeek on the hack Liron walks through
“PHP blames supply chain security biz Chainguard for putting huge chunks of the web at risk” — The Register on “the PHP thing last week”
ALSO MENTIONED
The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate — LessWrong wiki on the 2008 debate where “AI Go Foom” originated
“The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction” — Tim Urban’s Wait But Why post, where the intelligence train blows right past the station
PauseAI US — Holly Elmore’s organization, plugged at the close of the episode
DOOM DEBATES
Doom Debates on YouTube
Join the Doom Debates Discord
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Cybersecurity expert and entrepreneur Zack Korman is an increasingly prominent nondoomer voice on Twitter. Naturally, with AI now breaking out of sandboxes and hacking corporate systems, people want to hear what cybersecurity experts have to say. So I’m thrilled that Zack was brave enough to face me on Doom Debates!
Zack was reading Nick Bostrom at Oxford and worrying about AI doom as far back as 2016, but his views have since shifted. In a recent post, he writes: “This focus on AI causing human extinction is going to get people killed.” Now he expects security failures to give humanity plenty of opportunities to learn, fight back, and stop risky superintelligence development if necessary.
We argue about whether sandboxing and AI monitoring are hopeless strategies, whether competing superintelligences would keep each other in check, whether to expect instrumental convergence, and more.
Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/QJTeZfx1ZLk
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:01:15 — Introducing Zack Korman
00:03:41 — From Law to AI Security
00:09:17 — Why Zack Stopped Being a Doomer
00:12:03 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™
00:21:00 — Why Zack Supports AI Safety
00:25:54 — Believing in Superintelligence
00:30:06 — AI Without Tools
00:39:42 — Warning Shots and Time to React
00:46:08 — A Country of Geniuses in a Datacenter
00:55:55 — Can We Sandbox AI?
01:05:58 — Monitoring and Layers of Defense
01:14:49 — Riding the Doom Train™
01:22:23 — The Case for Accelerating
01:24:46 — AI CEOs and the Transfer of Power
01:34:19 — Who Presses the Stop Button?
01:41:38 — Humans, Bacteria, and the Limits of Power
01:48:30 — When Would Zack Pause AI?
01:56:13 — Will Different AIs Keep Each Other in Check?
02:06:11 — Can Progress Turn Against Us?
02:08:35 — The Ideological Turing Test
02:14:58 — Closing Thoughts
Links
Zack Korman on X
Zack Korman’s website
Zack Korman: “AI doomers are furious”
Zack Korman: “AI doomers are anti-security”
Zack Korman: “3 reasons sandboxing won’t secure your AI agent”
Zack Korman: “This focus on AI causing human extinction is going to get people killed.”
METR’s investigation of the OpenAI–Hugging Face incident
The PHP Foundation: “Today’s PHP Security Release, and How We’re Strengthening PHP Security”
Nick Bostrom: Superintelligence
Center for AI Safety: Statement on AI Risk
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
AI 2027
Zvi Mowshowitz: “The Three AI Pills”
PauseAI
Eliezer Yudkowsky: “Value is Fragile”
Aaron Scher at MIRI
Doom Debates: Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira — Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?
Doom Debates: OpenAI’s BOMBSHELL Hack — Swarms of Agents, Zero-Day Exploits, & Misaligned AI
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe