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Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, ...
Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard, Laurent and Michael present their 2025 Predictions in the Energy Transition.Here are the predictions that were made a year ago.1) Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China2) Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition3) Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down4) Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection5) The return of Clean Energy shares6) China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs Winner for best predictions is Michael Barnard, and the loser is Laurent (as usual) And here are our 6 predictions for 20251) Oil production down in the US in 20252) Oil prices will hit 40USD/bl in 20253) Geopolitics, stressed supply chains and Energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world4) A bloodbath for Hydrogen in the Transportation sector5) Record installation of Solar (700GW), EVs (20m) and Batteries (200GWh)6) The end of all financial products labelled ESG, Climate and Carbon We wish all our listeners an excellent year 2025 and we love you all.
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164. 2024 Wrap up: Successes, Surprises and Shocks
Merry Christmas. This is our last Episode of the Year where Laurent and Gerard summarise what impressed them, surprised them and shocked them. AI, Hydrogen, Renewables, USA vs Europe vs China, Climate. What worked, what did not work.2024 is a year that will be remembered at pivotal in so many aspects. We salute our friends, our influencers and unveil our book of the year: “The coming wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, not purely about Energy, but about the digital transformation that is revolutionising the world.Laurent and Gerard wish our listeners wonderful year end celebrations and… Buckle up for 2025.
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163. Gerard is live at TedXBerlin / Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption
Gerard delivered a master class at TedXBerlin about the four forces driving the Energy Revolution Solar, Batteries, Electronics and China. It is called “Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption” An excellent introduction for tomorrow’s world. You can watch Gerard on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwGvLj4rak
Just Climate is a 1.5bnUSD vehicle established by Generation Investment with the mission to invest in the highest impact solutions that can radically reduce or remove emissions. They occupy the “missing middle” between VC and PE-Infra allowing growth, FOAK and deployment. Their positioning comes on the heels of VCs such as Prelude Ventures, Energy Impact Partners or Breakthrough Energy Ventures.Laurent and Gerard invite its co-CIO, Shaun Kingsbury, the “inventor” of North Sea Offshore Wind when he was at the head of UK Green Investment Bank.We talk about the investment thesis and its portfolio. Steel? Cement? Electro-mobility? Gerard discusses the general environment when it comes to Climate Tech (not great) and wonders if the third wave of Green Investment is not hitting a wall after years of exuberance.Shaun concludes that there is no future for climate innovations if they don’t deliver attractive risk-adjusted financial returns. There will be short term bumps, but the long term is bright.
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161. Northvolt - Epitaph
Northvolt, once the poster child of the European battery industry, shocked the world last month by filling for Chapter 11 in the United States. The Swedish battery start-up burned through billions of euros in capital from investors such as Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, and others, with little to show for it. Laurent and Gerard conduct a postmortem on this debacle of epic proportions.With access to confidential sources within the company and its supply chain, they arrived at the same conclusions as Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL—the world’s leading battery manufacturer—who stated: “They have the wrong design, the wrong process, and the wrong equipment. How can they scale up? So almost all mistakes together.”The root causes of Northvolt’s failure? Hubris and culture. What’s next for the European battery industry? It’s time to face reality: partner with the best or risk failure.Northvolt’s collapse is a tragedy for its believers and a costly loss for investors. However, the industry continues to grow at a breakneck pace, and with pragmatism, there is a path forward.
Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation...Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen.Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/X handle: @Redef_Energy
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