Pivotal States

From 'spheres of influence' to 'naked imperialism' to 'peace through strength,' analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind.  Over the past year, he has rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Whether one views this record as beneficial or damaging to American interests, one thing seems clear: Trump has unleashed American power on the world stage, creating extraordinary uncertainty for the future world order.
So, how is Trump’s foreign policy shaping the world? To find the signal in the noise, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Visiting Lecturer at Yale Law School.

President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and what comes next. 
What are U.S. national interests in Venezuela in the first place? What does the United States stand to gain from a policy of maximizing control over Venezuela? And how does the U.S. operation in Venezuela impact the region, and even world order?   
To explore the consequences for the United States, Latin America, and the world, Christopher S. Chivvis is joined by Oliver Stuenkel, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo.

U.S.–Iranian animosity has persisted relentlessly for more than four decades. From the Cold War to the unipolar moment to today’s multipolar world, tensions between the United States and Iran have remained a constant in an otherwise shifting geopolitical landscape. Understandably, Washington blames Tehran. But where does American agency fit into this story? Where have U.S. policymakers missed chances to reset the relationship? And what stands in the way of charting a new course?
In her new book, Enduring Hostility, Dalia Dassa Kaye examines how America’s foreign-policy elite, from Reagan through Biden, have understood and shaped relations with Iran.
On Pivotal States, she joins host Christopher S. Chivvis to discuss how America's choices have contributed to the stubborn antagonism between the two countries, and what it will take to change the script.

The contest to stay on the leading edge of AI is rapidly taking center stage in America’s strategic competition with China. But what does it actually mean to beat China in AI? Does the United States have the right strategy for navigating this contest? Are policymakers overstating the threats posed by China, or by artificial intelligence itself? And can Washington and Beijing cooperate on areas of high risk even as they compete intensely elsewhere?
In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Colin H. Kahl, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Biden administration, to unpack the peril and the promise of U.S.–China competition in AI.

President Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He sent his negotiator Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and even hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high-profile summit in Alaska this August. But despite these moves, the war grinds on with no resolution in sight. Negotiations have stalled as Russia continues to demand sweeping concessions. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump is now pressing for more assertive international action against Moscow, even as his own willingness to impose further costs on Russia remains unclear. The path forward looks increasingly grim, and the limits of U.S. influence in Ukraine are becoming ever more apparent. So what kind of outcome is realistically achievable— and at what cost?
To assess the dilemmas inherent in America’s policy toward Ukraine, Chris Chivvis speaks with Thomas Wright, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.