The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks | Michael Howell
Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset prices: a 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.”
He breaks down the coming debt maturity wall, rising repo stress, the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy.
Plus, what all of this means for Bitcoin, gold, equities, and how to position as the current cycle rolls over.
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💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY
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We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything?
14:49 Will it Go Up Forever?
24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle?
34:23 Asset Allocation
47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break?
58:55 China Gold vs US Tech
1:04:29 Crypto & Gold
1:08:03 4-Year Cycles
1:12:40 AI Bubble
1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations
1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months
1:20:24 Assets to Hold
1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers
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RESOURCES
CrossBorder Capital
https://x.com/crossbordercap
CrossBorder Capital Website
https://crossbordercapital.com
Capital Wars Substack
https://capitalwars.substack.com/
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
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Is It All Over? What The Markets Are Saying For 2026
We analyze the crypto market's turbulence as Bitcoin falls below $90k, signaling potential bear market conditions. Also, it’s DevConnect! We discuss investor sentiment, and examine key updates like Vitalik Buterin's roadmap for Ethereum and Aave's new app. Tune in for essential market updates!
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💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
5:09 Markets
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-11-13/
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/peter-thiel-sells-entire-nvidia-stake-amid-ai-bubble-fears/articleshow/125379608.cms
https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1991263435493974047?s=20
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/
https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1989965484150628639?s=20
https://x.com/tomcrown/status/1990179433282683287?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g
https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/1989337109878964499?s=20
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/snow-forecast
https://thedefireport.io/research/btc-market-structure-is-broken#broken-momentum
https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1989713072970178899?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g
25:37 Devconnect
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1991172751302832498?s=20
https://x.com/adietrichs/status/1991203626358899081?s=20
https://x.com/kocikowski/status/1991202772289745101?s=20
https://x.com/wildbambii/status/1991144720605532336?s=20
https://x.com/richardchen39/status/1990941231937896513?s=20
https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/1990741519301570859?s=20
42:21 Aave App Launch
https://x.com/aave/status/1990421343175672159?s=20
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1990453904899706971?s=20
https://x.com/0xMari0/status/1990829156712530307?s=20
46:04 Aztec's Decentralized L2
https://x.com/aztecnetwork/status/1991214517594759652?s=20
https://x.com/lisacuesta/status/1991233718271332597?s=20
48:50 Coinbase's New Features
https://www.theblock.co/post/379516/coinbase-app-code-include-early-prediction-market-stock-trading-modules
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1990453391252935157
59:35 Bitcoin Purchases by Harvard
https://www.theblock.co/post/378967/harvard-triples-down-on-bitcoin-bet-with-spot-etf-buys-from-worlds-largest-academic-endowment
1:01:21 El Salvador's Bold Bitcoin Moves
https://www.theblock.co/post/378967/harvard-triples-down-on-bitcoin-bet-with-spot-etf-buys-from-worlds-largest-academic-endowment
1:02:26 BlackRock's Ethereum Trust
https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1991257411483537813?s=20
1:03:24 Institutional Interest in ETH
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1990460127510695940?s=20
1:05:09 Closing
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
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Defensive Investing for an AI Bubble | Ruchir Sharma's Hedge Rules
America isn’t just leading the AI race; it’s increasingly built on it. Investor–author Ruchir Sharma joins Bankless to unpack why U.S. growth, stock gains, and even debt complacency are now tethered to a single story, and what a sensible hedge looks like. We trace how U.S. dominance happened, what could puncture the current euphoria, and where the real diversification lives: quality stocks that have lagged, broad ex-US exposure with currency tailwinds, and selective bets in India, China, and reform winners like Greece and Poland. We also tackle the “gold + stocks up together” puzzle, why that correlation can bite in a tightening cycle, and Ruchir’s “two cheers” case for Bitcoin as a portfolio asset whose utility still has room to grow.
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💤EIGHT SLEEP | IMPROVE YOUR SLEEP
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💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY
https://bankless.cc/bit-digital
We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 The Contrarian Take: American Exceptionalism Peaks
4:06 Theme of the 2020s
6:42 “America Is One Big Bet on AI”
13:07 The Counterfactual
19:01 Is This an AI Bubble?
22:59 The Catalyst That Pops Bubbles
29:05 How U.S. Dominance Happened
34:41 Moral Hazard & Household Risk
37:24 Green Shoots Abroad
39:37 Practical Rebalance for U.S.-Heavy Investors
50:17 How to Start Outside the U.S.
1:00:58 Gold & Stocks: Partying Together
1:05:47 Real Hedges Now
1:09:39 Bitcoin: Two Cheers
1:13:08 Closing Thoughts
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RESOURCES
Ruchir Sharma
https://ruchirsharma.com
Ruchir’s FT Articles
https://www.ft.com/ruchir-sharma
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
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Bryan Johnson: Don’t Die, Beating Entropy, AI Alignment & The Two-Species Future
Bryan Johnson lays out “Don’t Die,” a moral framework that puts existence first and turns longevity into a shared fight against entropy.
We pressure-test the hard stuff: selfishness, inequality, stagnation, and the so-called two-species future. Bryan argues these are solvable with smart societal engineering if “don’t die” is for everyone. He breaks down Blueprint as a practical on-ramp with evidence-based health, behavior, and social habits.
We finish on crypto, from his Braintree days with Coinbase to how web3 could power a broad “don’t die” commons.
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💤EIGHT SLEEP | IMPROVE YOUR SLEEP
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💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY
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We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Don’t Die
8:18 Beating Entropy
18:35 Existence as The Highest Virtue
21:01 Isn’t Don’t Die Selfish?
27:12 AI Alignment
31:36 Collective Don’t Die
33:34 Don’t Die & AI
37:36 Longevity Escape Velocity
40:57 The Two-Species Future
47:07 A Path Without Creative Destruction?
52:40 Bryan’s 500-Year Lifespan
59:19 Blueprint
1:04:52 Crypto
1:06:23 Closing Thoughts
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RESOURCES
Bryan johnson
https://x.com/bryan_johnson
Bryan Johnson Links
https://bryanjohnson.komi.io/
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
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Market uncertainty? On this week’s Weekly Rollup, Ryan and guest co-host Tom Schmidt dig into a jittery crypto market, Trump’s new economic ideas aimed at boosting sentiment, and whether the four-year cycle prophecy is finally catching up with Bitcoin. They also cover Coinbase bringing ICOs back to U.S. retail, Uniswap’s long-awaited fee switch moment, and JPMorgan launching a deposit token on Base. Plus: Zcash’s 4,000 percent surge, Ethereum’s renewed privacy push, Binance tightening rules on shielded coins, and a privacy-wallet developer receiving a five-year prison sentence.
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💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY
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We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors
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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES
0:00 Intro
3:05 Markets
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1988811150402916672
https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1987681686218228125
https://x.com/QwQiao/status/1988769174005698675
https://x.com/bonchieredstate/status/1987276536584818914
https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1987537420263338275
https://x.com/ts_hodl/status/1987279165041545634
https://x.com/kianejatian/status/1987373998087270424
https://x.com/pro__trading/status/1987343377718038585
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1988035796490694949
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/business/trump-dividend-payment-tariff-stimulus
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025
20:08 Privacy season in crypto?
https://x.com/damskotrades/status/1986772019854160184
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/zcash
https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1973733637582708971
https://x.com/AvgJoesCrypto/status/1986822768667525347
https://x.com/hasufl/status/1985288958603927788
https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1988035181127626810
https://x.com/MisterMonero/status/1986520956333170844
https://x.com/tyler/status/1988609730646778061
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/11/06/samourai-wallet-developer-sentenced-to-5-years-in-prison-for-unlicensed-money-transmitting
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.615997/gov.uscourts.nysd.615997.154.1_1.pdf
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1986845985088168271
35:00 Uniswap turning on the fee switch!
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1987990314997739625
https://x.com/PaulFrambot/status/1988075691359748317
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1988266505096536085
https://imgur.com/a/OuSZTXk
https://imgur.com/a/AxKHIMi
https://dune.com/kunallegendd/uniswap-revenue-estimates
https://x.com/EffortCapital/status/1988263477593440611
https://x.com/DefiIgnas/status/1988245763957125539
https://x.com/DefiIgnas/status/1988188661578449219
https://x.com/lemiscate/status/1988204573400723544
https://x.com/jchervinsky/status/1988333836611011037
https://x.com/milesjennings/status/1988628499087736998
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1988846923080421878
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1988044454939279379
49:59 Coinbase is launching an ICO platform & Monad ICO
https://x.com/coinbase/status/1987883986924843073
https://x.com/BillHughesDC/status/1987969709711458584
https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1987884634789556488
https://x.com/monad/status/1987884528724017167
https://x.com/confugen/status/1987886741689454708
https://x.com/onchainmo/status/1987889262893945022
https://x.com/marggaarin/status/1987884981683642725
https://x.com/0xkydo/status/1988111486418661546
55:23 Bank Adoption
https://x.com/WhaleInsider/status/1988468697980129350
https://x.com/sytaylor/status/1988543985049116942
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1988246045222912207
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1987882958234218601
1:01:44 Crypto Geopolitics
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1988341005431828918
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/china-accuses-us-of-orchestrating-13-billion-bitcoin-hack?srnd=homepage-americas
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1988627943107490112
1:07:35 Closing & Disclaimers
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