More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.
(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).
(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)
(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol
Returning Special Guest appearance:
Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media:

‘The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’.

The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums.

The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from Malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea.

From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here?

We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, Chief Medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Duncan Hannant

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?
(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.
(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability?
(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr  Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research.
Special guest appearance:
Elis James
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today.
Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?
Andrew’s new book is ’1929: Inside the Crash’.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim.
(08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in…
(16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores?
(21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute
Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack
John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London
Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard