NucleCast

In this episode of NucleCast, Adam sits down with Paul Amato for an in-depth discussion on the role of theater nuclear weapons in maintaining U.S. deterrence and strategic stability. Drawing on historical lessons from the Cold War and examining today's evolving security environment, they explore why low-yield nuclear capabilities remain an important component of U.S. defense strategy.
The conversation examines Russian and Chinese nuclear approaches, the development of low-yield nuclear options in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, and the operational realities of deploying and sustaining theater nuclear forces. Amato explains how capability diversity, alliance assurance, and extended deterrence contribute to strategic stability and why maintaining credible options across the escalation spectrum is critical to deterring adversaries.
They also discuss common misconceptions about low-yield weapons, the importance of capability symmetry, and what the future nuclear force structure may require as global threats continue to evolve.
Paul Amato is the Principal Advisor for Strategic and Nuclear Deterrence at CNA. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. From 2016-2025, Amato was director of nuclear deterrence policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he and his team led all facets of nuclear deterrence policy development, implementation and allied extended deterrence, including overseeing development and implementation of both the 2018 and 2022 Nuclear Posture Reviews. His experience includes more than a decade as an attorney in private practice, and over twenty-eight years of active and reserve service in the US Marine Corps. Amato is a graduate of Franklin & Marshall College and the University of Pittsburgh School of Law. The views he expresses in this podcast are his own.
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Are perceived gaps in nuclear capabilities driving unnecessary fears of a new arms race? In this Part 2, Jay Tilden examines one of the most enduring questions in deterrence theory: How do perceptions of vulnerability influence nuclear strategy and global stability?
Drawing on history, policy, and strategic theory, Tilden explores the concept of the “missile gap,” the political and psychological forces that shape deterrence debates, and whether symmetrical nuclear capabilities can actually contribute to stability rather than instability. The discussion challenges common assumptions about nuclear competition, emphasizing that deterrence depends as much on communication, understanding, and credibility as it does on military capability.
The conversation also examines adversary motivations, the role of nuclear doctrine, and the risks of public misunderstandings surrounding nuclear weapons and strategy. Tilden argues that calls for new capabilities are often driven by perceived vulnerabilities rather than actual strategic disadvantages, while highlighting the importance of informed, transparent dialogue among policymakers, military leaders, and the public.
Key Takeaways:
Perceived vulnerabilities often drive nuclear escalation and modernization efforts.
Nuclear responses do not always need to be proportional to be credible.
Strategic dialogue and communication are essential to maintaining deterrence stability.
Symmetry in capabilities can be stabilizing rather than destabilizing.
Arms races may reflect mutual recognition of strength and capability, not necessarily increased instability.

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In this episode, General (Ret.) Robin Rand joins NucleCast to discuss the mission and impact of the Kyle Institute for National Security at the University of Arizona.
Rand provides an inside look at how the Institute is advancing national security through cutting-edge research in hypersonics, cyber, space, and directed energy, while building critical partnerships with federal agencies, the defense industry, and regional military installations. He also highlights the Institute’s role in developing the next generation of the national security workforce.
The conversation explores today’s most pressing strategic challenges—from contested domains like cyber and space to acquisition hurdles—and underscores the enduring importance of modernizing the nuclear deterrent in a rapidly evolving threat environment.
General (Ret.) Robin Rand is President and CEO of the Kyl Institute for National Security at the University of Arizona. A former Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command and U.S. Strategic Command’s air component, he served over 44 years in the U.S. Air Force, with more than 5,100 flying hours, primarily in the F-16.
Following his military career, he has held senior leadership and advisory roles across the defense, nonprofit, and academic sectors, bringing deep expertise in strategic deterrence, national security policy, and workforce development.
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In this episode of NucleCast, Neile Miller breaks down the often-overlooked mechanics of federal budgeting and what they mean for the nuclear enterprise. From the earliest stages of budget formulation within the laboratories to the critical role of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Miller offers a clear, insider perspective on how funding decisions shape national security priorities.
The conversation also explores the remarkable evolution of the Nevada National Security Site—from its origins as a nuclear testing ground to its current role as a hub for advanced science and stockpile stewardship. Miller highlights how underground experiments, cutting-edge research, and the management of government-owned, contractor-operated facilities contribute to maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
Neile Miller is Vice President of Strategic Engagement & Communications for Mission Support and Test Services (MSTS), the management contractor for the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). She leads strategic communications, stakeholder engagement, and community outreach efforts.
Since joining NNSS in 2018, Miller has served as Senior Director of Business Operations—overseeing finance, HR, IT, and supply chain—and as Chief Strategist, guiding the site’s long-term operational success.
Previously, she served as Acting Undersecretary of Energy for Nuclear Security and Principal Deputy Administrator of the NNSA. During her tenure, she drove major transformation across the U.S. nuclear weapons enterprise and received top awards from both the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy.
Miller also served as DOE Budget Director and held senior roles in the Office of Nuclear Energy, as well as two tours at the White House Office of Management and Budget overseeing DOE, DoD, NNSA, and NRC programs.
In the private sector, she has advised organizations on strategy, innovation, and growth, and continues to serve as a Senior Advisor to HWG, LLP.
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In this episode of NucleCast, Adam sits down with Jay Tilden, former Department of Energy intelligence officer, for an inside look at how the U.S. understands, tracks, and deters nuclear risks in an increasingly complex global environment.
From the intelligence role of the Department of Energy to the evolving threats posed by China, Russia, and Iran, Tilden breaks down the realities of nuclear proliferation, the risks of nuclear terrorism, and the critical role of nuclear forensics in deterrence. He also explains why modern nuclear challenges extend beyond weapons—highlighting the growing importance of cybersecurity in the energy sector and the continued need for reliable nuclear power to ensure national and economic security.
Jay Tilden is Managing Director for National Security at Mission Strategies, leading the firm’s national and energy security practice after a 35-year career at the U.S. Department of Energy, including 13 years in the Senior Executive Service.
He most recently served as Director of DOE’s Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, leading nuclear, energy, cyber intelligence, and counterintelligence efforts across the enterprise. Previously, he was Deputy Under Secretary for Counterterrorism and Counterproliferation at NNSA.
Jay is also a 22-year U.S. Army veteran, serving as a Counterintelligence Technician.
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