More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us.
Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one.
Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers.
And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on [email protected].
Guests:
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency.
Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one.
Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?
A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?
And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.
Contributors:
Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics
John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times
Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’
Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy Associates
Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected.
When a disease isn’t on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic.

But what if the thing you’re talking about is not a virus, but a feeling?
In 2023, the US surgeon general launched a report called “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation”, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated.
The idea that there is an epidemic of loneliness didn’t start there - the term was already in use in the US in the 2010s. And it’s a phrase that’s still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis.
After that warning from the US Surgeon General, the World Health Organisation launched the Commission on Social Connection, with their director general warning that “more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely.”
But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we’re in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness?

It’s hard to find the data that backs up this claim.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email [email protected]
CONTRIBUTOR:
Professor Melody Ding, an epidemiologist and population behavioural scientist at the University of Sydney
This programme has been edited to correct a minor technical production error on 27/05/2026
CREDITS:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:
Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right.
In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too.
Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.
How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: [email protected]
CONTRIBUTORS:
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute
Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study
Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPB
CREDITS
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon