The Diplomacy Podcast

A security expert warns that Canberra is betting on a partner reluctant to defend its primacy in Asia.
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As Canada and European countries search for greater independence from the United States, Australia is moving in the opposite direction, accelerating its military integration with Washington. That stands in contrast even to neighboring New Zealand, whose strategy has been to keep its head down and avoid attracting attention.
To examine that dependence, I invited Sam Roggeveen, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, a leading Australian think tank, onto the latest episode of The Diplomacy Podcast. He argues that the country can defend itself without relying on U.S. help.
Australian public opinion reveals a striking contradiction. According to Lowy’s latest poll, confidence in the United States to act responsibly in the world has fallen to a record-low 31 percent, and only 21 percent of Australians trust Trump to do the right thing in international affairs.
Yet 73 percent still consider the U.S. alliance important to Australian security, while 68 percent support acquiring nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS, a security partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States.
Roggeveen said that Canberra’s continued dependence on Washington reflects a failure to recognize that the decline of U.S. power and commitment in the Asia-Pacific began long before Trump and will continue after he leaves office. He warned that Canberra is betting on an increasingly unreliable partner reluctant to defend its primacy in the region.
He questioned whether Washington would risk a catastrophic war with China to preserve its position — or to defend Taiwan. And if a war were to break out, he doubts the United States would win it.
We also discussed Australia’s economic interdependence with China, the possibility that Trump could pressure Canberra to restrict exports to Beijing and the country’s diplomatic efforts to strengthen its position among Pacific island nations and with Indonesia.
To hear his analysis, watch or listen to the episode above — or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.
As always, my guest’s opinions don’t necessarily represent my own views.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com

A retired career ambassador doubts Canadians will ever trust the U.S. as they did before Trump.
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More than a year and a half into his second administration, it remains unclear why exactly Trump decided to pick a fight with Canada. What began with threats to make the United States’ closest partner the 51st state has escalated into an open trade war — and a fundamental reassessment of a relationship that Canadians had long taken for granted.
After Washington imposed 50-percent tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods, Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from negotiations that he said would undermine Canada’s sovereignty. Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs took effect this week, as it tries to reduce its economic and security dependence on the United States.
To explore what this historic rupture means for Canada, I invited Patricia Fortier, a retired career ambassador, onto the latest episode of The Diplomacy Podcast. During 34 years in the Canadian Foreign Service, she served as ambassador to Peru and Bolivia, as well as the Dominican Republic, and headed the political section at the Canadian Embassy in Washington.
Fortier said that Canadians no longer view the U.S. government as a reliable partner, which she described as “a very big change.” Although Carney has tried to respond calmly and rationally to Trump’s hostility, she added, “we’re not dealing with much that is rational.”
The rupture has already changed the daily behavior of Canadians, Fortier said. Travel to the United States has plummeted, while consumers and provincial governments have boycotted U.S. products. According to government figures, Canadian visits to the United States fell by a quarter last year, the steepest sustained decline on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic.
Canada is now drawing closer to Europe and expanding its engagement with countries such as China and India, Fortier said. It’s also considering non-U.S. suppliers for fighter jets, submarines and other defense systems — choices that would have been difficult to imagine when Washington was still regarded as Ottawa’s indispensable ally.
Rebuilding a functional relationship will remain necessary, because neither country can change its geography, Fortier said, but it may never again resemble the partnership that existed before Trump.
“Coercion only lasts as long as you can coerce,” she said. “But if countries maintain their sovereignty and turn away, then the power of coercion starts to diminish.”
To hear what all this means for Canadian diplomacy, watch or listen to the episode above — or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com

A former senior official calls Trump's agenda "conducive to confrontation," not "peace and prosperity."
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Spain has emerged as one of the most vocal opponents of the Trump administration’s upheaval of the international system — unlike the many countries trying to avoid getting caught in Washington’s crosshairs.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has challenged the administration over its war against Iran, its approach to Gaza and the International Criminal Court, its demands for higher European defense spending and its broader rejection of international law and multilateral cooperation.
Yet Spain continues to regard the United States as a “natural and historic” ally. That tension — resisting Washington’s worldview while preserving the transatlantic relationship — led me to invite Cristina Gallach as the guest on the latest episode of The Diplomacy Podcast. She served as deputy foreign minister in Sánchez’s government, following a stint as U.N. undersecretary-general for communications.
Explaining Spain’s position in its current disagreements with Washington, Gallach noted that Spanish public opinion largely supports Sánchez’s defiance of Trump. Nearly 70 percent of Spaniards expressed unfavorable views of the United States in a YouGov poll in February, and 78 percent said they didn’t trust Trump “to do the right thing regarding world affairs” in a Pew survey in May.
The Trump administration’s agenda runs counter to Spain’s commitment to international law, Gallach said. “We don’t think it’s conducive to peace and prosperity. It’s conducive to confrontation,” she added. “We don’t like it.”
Today’s overlapping wars, trade conflicts and climate emergencies require more cooperation and stronger international institutions — not abandoning multilateralism, she said. But she called for a “new multilateralism” that reflects the distribution of power and influence in 2026, not a return to the system created in 1945.
I also asked her about the misinformation campaign that persuaded tens of thousands of migrants to swim from Morocco to Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta last month. That social-media campaign was based on a wrong interpretation of a Spanish Supreme Court ruling, falsely claiming that the migrants wouldn’t be expelled.
To hear her response, watch or listen to the episode above — or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.
As always, my guest’s opinions don’t necessarily represent my own views.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com

An international relations scholar explains why his country still needs a global order it has long criticized.
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Brazil has long relied on diplomacy, international law and multilateral institutions to protect its independence from more powerful countries. What happens when the United States, the principal architect of the so-called rules-based order, begins operating by different rules?
My guest on this week’s podcast episode is Antonio Ramalho, a professor of international relations at the University of Brasília whose public service has included positions at the Ministry of Defense. This season, I’m bringing you perspectives from key countries on how they are adapting to the changing international system.
We begin with the latest tensions between Washington and Brasília: new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports and accusations that the Trump administration is interfering in Brazil’s upcoming presidential election.
In late July, the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva denied entry visas to two State Department political appointees, saying they intended to “cast doubt on the credibility of Brazil’s electoral system.”
Yesterday, the Trump administration said it had revoked the U.S. visa of Brazil’s ambassador to Washington, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti. It accused Brasília of delaying approval for Trump’s nominee to serve as U.S. ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Perez, a Florida state lawmaker with no foreign-policy experience.
Revoking a visa doesn’t necessarily require its holder to leave the United States but Viotti couldn’t re-enter the country if she left. A host-government can expel a foreign diplomat by declaring that official persona non grata (PNG).
The Trump administration hasn’t PNGed — in diplomatic jargon — Viotti yet and said it would reinstate her visa if Brazil granted formal approval, known as agrément, to Perez.
I spoke with Ramalho shortly before the visa revocation. He explains why Trump’s tariffs and vocal support for Lula’s opponent in the October election, Flávio Bolsonaro, may actually help Lula win — and how Trump’s actions are pushing Brazilian businesses, students and tourists away from the United States.
We then turn to the larger picture. How are the Trump administration’s actions affecting Brazil more broadly, including its politics, economy and society, and how is the country responding? What might replace the rules-based order if it doesn’t survive?
As always, my guest’s opinions don’t necessarily represent my own views.
Watch or listen to the episode above, or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com

A pro-American former minister and ambassador worries about the U.S. trade retreat's global impact.
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When Americans consider how the upheavals of the Trump era affect the rest of the world, they usually think of Europe, Canada or perhaps Japan.
Yet few countries have benefited more from a stable, rules-based international system than New Zealand. And few people have observed that system more closely than Tim Groser — a former trade, climate change and conservation minister, former ambassador to the United States, Indonesia and the World Trade Organization, and one of New Zealand’s most experienced diplomats.
On this season of The Diplomacy Podcast, I’m introducing you to some of the policymakers, diplomats, journalists and scholars I meet as I travel to more than 20 countries researching a book on the shifting international system. They share how U.S. actions are changing their countries.
Unapologetically pro-American, Groser offers a sober assessment of where U.S. leadership is retreating, why trade concerns him more than any other area, and why New Zealand’s instinct in today’s geopolitical climate is remarkably simple: keep your head down.
If you appreciate thoughtful, highly informed and expertly analytical insight from a longtime practitioner, I think you’ll enjoy this conversation.
As always, my guest’s opinions don’t necessarily represent my own views.
Watch or listen to the episode above, or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com