Excess Returns

• The Case That We Are in the Early Stages of an AI Bull Market | Gene Munster and Doug Clinton

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF.Topics covered:• Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity• How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends• The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption• Doug’s “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios• The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans• Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom• The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles• The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth• The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta• Apple’s long-term AI positioning and potential comeback• Tesla’s valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics• The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies• The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation• Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnologyTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and Deepwater’s AI thesis03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta34:00 Apple’s role and long-term AI potential39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions?49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies54:45 Closing thoughts

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• Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking | Tobias Carlisle

  Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.Main topics covered:• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire HathawayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle’s key ideas02:00 Applying Sun Tzu’s “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett’s Apple investment19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion50:00 Buffett’s investments in Japan’s trading houses56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition61:00 Charlie Munger’s blueprint and Buffett’s strategic genius64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online

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• Timeless Lessons from a Trend Following Legend | Jerry Parker

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world.Topics covered:• The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt• How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems• Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules• The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing• The design and diversification of a robust trading universe• Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run• Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio• How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies• Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems• The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerousTimestamps:00:00 Trading should be hard02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program08:00 Evolution of trend following systems12:00 The psychology of following rules16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test20:00 Could the Turtle program work today?23:00 Building a diversified trading universe28:00 Risk management and position sizing32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures48:00 Where the strongest trends are now52:00 AI and systematic investing53:30 The internal truths of trend following56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with

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• The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders

  Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ifeSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003Subscribe on YouTubehttps://youtube.com/@excessreturns

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• Investing in a Debasement Regime | Warren Pies

  Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.Main topics covered• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation• What could ultimately break the debasement regimeTimestamps00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,00038:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics57:13 What could end the debasement regime59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

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