Texas Talks

Why are homes in Texas becoming increasingly unaffordable — and what will it actually take to fix it?

In this episode of Texas Talks, host Brad Swail sits down with Sean Dobson, CEO of Amherst Group, to break down the real forces driving today’s housing affordability crisis — and why many popular explanations fall short.

Dobson, a veteran of the mortgage and housing markets who correctly anticipated the 2008 financial crisis, explains how today’s challenges are rooted in a mix of monetary policy, supply constraints, and structural issues within housing finance — not just the surface-level narratives dominating political debate.

A major focus of the conversation is how historically low interest rates during COVID dramatically increased buying power, pushing home prices up roughly 60% in just four years. At the same time, rising rates have now “locked in” homeowners, reducing supply and making it harder for new buyers to enter the market.

Dobson also challenges several widely held assumptions, including the idea that institutional investors are the primary cause of high home prices. Instead, he argues that these investors often provide access to housing for families who cannot qualify for mortgages under today’s stricter lending standards.

The conversation also covers:

• Why housing affordability is near historic lows

• How interest rates drive home prices more than most people realize

• The long-term impact of COVID-era monetary policy

• Why low-rate mortgages are “locking” homeowners in place

• The real role of institutional investors in the housing market

• How Dodd-Frank reshaped mortgage access after 2008

• Why the 2008 crisis was driven by fraud — not “subprime borrowers”

• The growing burden of property taxes and insurance costs

• Why housing is ultimately a local — not national — issue

• How zoning laws and regulations drive up construction costs

• The hidden costs of design mandates like garages and lot requirements

• Why modular construction and innovation struggle to scale

• The tradeoffs between expanding credit access and managing risk

Dobson also outlines potential solutions, emphasizing that increasing housing supply and allowing more flexibility in home design could significantly reduce costs. He points to recent efforts in Texas — including smaller lot sizes and accessory dwelling units — as steps in the right direction, while arguing that broader reforms may be needed at the state level.

The episode closes with a clear takeaway: solving the housing crisis will require difficult tradeoffs, smarter policy, and a willingness to move beyond simplistic narratives about what’s driving the problem.

00:00 — Intro + Sean Dobson joins Texas Talks

00:25 — Dobson’s background and predicting the 2008 crisis

01:23 — What Amherst Group does in housing and finance

03:10 — Why mortgages are more complex than they seem

06:01 — The power of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage

07:09 — Why housing affordability is near historic lows

08:32 — How low interest rates drove home price spikes

10:31 — Why homeowners are “locked in” by low rates

12:12 — Supply constraints and Texas vs other states

13:53 — Property taxes and their impact on affordability

17:02 — Insurance costs and hidden homeownership risks

19:15 — What actually drives construction costs

21:11 — How regulation increases home prices

23:08 — Why housing innovation is limited

25:04 — The role of AI and construction efficiency

27:48 — Institutional investors: myth vs reality

29:23 — Why many renters can’t qualify for mortgages

31:08 — Dodd-Frank and tightening credit access

35:02 — What really caused the 2008 financial crisis

39:15 — Expanding credit vs risk of foreclosures

41:49 — What Texas can do to fix housing affordability

43:50 — Closing

Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@TexasTalks

As part of the Future of Texas series in partnership with Texas 2036, this episode explores what it really takes to raise a family in Texas today — and what must hold up over the next decade if the state wants to remain a place of opportunity.

In this episode of Texas Talks, host Brad Swail is joined by Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker and A.J. Rodriguez, Executive Vice President of Texas 2036, for a wide-ranging conversation about the policies, pressures, and quality-of-life factors shaping family life across Texas.

The discussion begins with a simple but important question: if Texas wants to remain the best place to live, work, and raise a family, what does that actually require in practice? Parker and Rodriguez argue that the answer goes far beyond economic headlines. It includes affordability, maternal and infant health, access to quality education, child care, safe neighborhoods, housing, and the everyday experience of whether families feel like they can build a stable and hopeful future here.

A major focus of the episode is how growth is reshaping Texas. As cities like Fort Worth continue to add residents at a rapid pace, leaders are being forced to ask whether the state’s success is truly working for Texas families — especially those who have been here for generations. Parker emphasizes that city government must stay focused on the basics while also addressing long-term quality-of-life issues, while Rodriguez brings a statewide lens to how those same pressures show up across Texas.

The conversation also covers:

• Why family well-being should be central to long-term Texas policy

• Maternal and infant health challenges in Texas and North Texas

• How simple interventions can improve outcomes for mothers and babies

• Why child care affordability has become a major barrier for families

• The importance of early childhood education as an economic issue

• Housing affordability, infill development, and middle-income opportunity

• The role of local government in supporting quality of life

• How education and postsecondary attainment drive long-term prosperity

• Why family-sustaining wages matter for choice, stability, and mobility

• The balance between rural and urban needs in the future of Texas

Parker also highlights Fort Worth’s efforts to improve maternal health outcomes, support neighborhood revitalization, and expand opportunity through education and workforce pathways. Rodriguez underscores that if Texas wants to preserve its economic momentum, it must invest just as seriously in human infrastructure as it does in roads, water, and broadband.

The episode closes with a clear message: the future of Texas will not be measured only by growth, but by whether families can afford to stay, thrive, and see a path forward for the next generation.

Through the Future of Texas podcast series, Texas 2036 brings together diverse perspectives as we explore the opportunities and challenges facing our state over the next ten years. The views expressed in this program are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Texas 2036, its staff or its Board of Directors.

00:00 — Introduction to the Future of Texas series

00:29 — Why raising a family is central to Texas’s future

00:52 — Guests introduced: Mayor Mattie Parker and A.J. Rodriguez

01:28 — Balancing public service, motherhood, and leadership

03:02 — Why families matter to the Texas miracle

06:08 — Growth, migration, and whether Texas is working for Texans

07:47 — Quality of life and what families actually want

09:49 — Maternal and infant health in Texas

12:13 — Fort Worth’s maternal health coalition and practical interventions

15:05 — Health, education, and quality of life beyond birth

19:08 — Education, workforce pathways, and family prosperity

23:14 — Defining quality of life for Texas families

25:28 — Affordability, child care, housing, and health care pressures

28:34 — Housing affordability and local policy challenges

35:06 — Early childhood education and child care as economic policy

43:50 — Rural and urban family needs across Texas

49:35 — A long-term vision for Texas families

51:19 — The one metric that matters most by 2036

Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@TexasTalks

This episode kicks off the Texas Talks Special Series: AI and Public Policy, a multi-part series exploring how artificial intelligence will reshape governance at every level in the years ahead.

Artificial intelligence is advancing at an unprecedented pace — but can government keep up?

In this episode of Texas Talks, host Brad Swail is joined by Tanner Jones and Chris Minge, cofounders of Vulcan Technologies, to launch the series with a deep dive into how AI is already transforming the private sector — and why government risks falling dangerously behind if it fails to adapt.

Jones and Minge explain how their company is working to bring “frontier AI” into state and federal government, giving policymakers the tools to better understand laws, budgets, and regulatory systems in real time. They argue that without modernization, the gap between private-sector innovation and government capability could grow so wide that it undermines effective governance.

The discussion also dives into the structural problems holding government back — from outdated procurement systems to legacy vendors delivering obsolete technology — and how those inefficiencies impact everything from permitting to policymaking.

The conversation also covers:

• Why government technology often lags years behind the private sector

• How outdated procurement systems slow innovation and increase costs

• The risks of governments relying on outdated AI models

• Why AI should serve as a tool for policymakers — not replace them

• How Vulcan’s platform helps navigate massive legal and regulatory datasets

• The challenge of building clean, usable government data from fragmented systems

• How AI can reduce months-long processes (like permitting) down to days

• The dangers of a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory patchwork

• Why startups — not just legacy vendors — are critical to innovation in government

• How Texas is positioning itself as a national leader in AI-driven governance

• The broader economic and policy implications of AI adoption

Jones and Minge also highlight real-world results, including dramatic reductions in time spent on routine government tasks and the ability for public servants to focus more on high-level policy work instead of clerical processes.

Looking ahead, they argue that states like Texas that successfully integrate AI into governance will see faster economic growth, more efficient public services, and a stronger competitive advantage — while those that fail to adapt risk falling further behind.

00:00 — Introduction to AI and public policy series

00:27 — Tanner Jones and Chris Minge introduce Vulcan Technologies

01:10 — Founders’ background and company origin story

02:28 — The growing gap between private sector and government tech

03:55 — Why outdated government tech threatens the “Republic”

05:10 — Procurement failures and legacy vendors explained

06:59 — Why citizens often have better AI tools than government

07:47 — Are government buyers equipped to evaluate tech?

09:08 — How AI models rapidly become outdated

10:38 — Concerns about AI accuracy, hallucinations, and control

11:49 — AI as a tool vs decision-maker in government

13:13 — What happens if government falls too far behind

14:38 — Procurement bottlenecks and adoption challenges

16:10 — Vendor lock-in and inflated government tech costs

17:54 — Why Vulcan ships updates differently

18:58 — Real-world use cases: governors and policymaking tools

20:15 — Navigating legal, budget, and regulatory systems with AI

21:26 — Why generic AI tools fail for government use

22:42 — Building massive legal datasets from scratch

24:06 — The challenge of unusable government data (PDFs, scans)

26:17 — Texas innovation and the Regulatory Efficiency Office

27:47 — The risks of a fragmented AI regulatory patchwork

29:20 — Balancing AI innovation with necessary guardrails

31:16 — Compliance challenges and FedRAMP

33:02 — Real-world example: fixing permitting bottlenecks

35:23 — What becomes possible with AI in government

37:08 — Cleaning up contradictory laws and regulations

38:43 — Real results: time savings and productivity gains

41:21 — The future of AI-driven governance in Texas

44:06 — Economic growth and competitive advantage from AI adoption

45:03 — Closing thoughts and where to learn more

Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@TexasTalks

As part of the Future of Texas series in partnership with Texas 2036, this episode explores how Texas courts and the justice system must evolve to serve a rapidly growing state.

In this episode of Texas Talks, host Brad Swail is joined by Chief Justice Wallace B. Jefferson, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas, and Luis Soberon, Senior Policy Advisor and In House Counsel at Texas 2036, for a forward-looking conversation about the future of courts, access to justice, and judicial reform in Texas.

As Texas adds more residents, more businesses, and more complexity to its economy, the demands on the justice system are growing as well. Chief Justice Jefferson and Soberon discuss how population growth affects everything from family law and criminal dockets to business disputes and court backlogs — and why the state must modernize now if it wants to preserve public trust and timely access to justice by 2036.

The conversation also examines how Texas courts have already evolved through electronic filing, virtual hearings, and greater public transparency, while also looking ahead to the next wave of change driven by AI, data systems, and digital tools that could make the justice system more accessible and more efficient.

The discussion also covers:

• Why access to justice still depends too heavily on who can afford a lawyer

• How legal aid, pro bono work, and technology can help narrow that gap

• The role of e-filing, courtroom livestreams, and digital systems in modernizing courts

• How AI could improve legal access and court administration without replacing human judgment

• Why Texas may need more courts, more judges, and stronger court funding as the state grows

• Whether partisan judicial elections still make sense in a more populous and polarized Texas

• Why court data and transparency are essential to understanding backlog, performance, and reform

• How simple changes like text reminders and clearer notices can improve compliance and reduce harm

• Why backlog reduction and access to justice may be the clearest markers of success by 2036

Chief Justice Jefferson argues that Texas should aim to become a national leader in ensuring every resident can protect their most basic rights in court, while Soberon emphasizes that better data, smarter administration, and sustained investment will be critical if the justice system is going to keep pace with Texas’s future.

Through the Future of Texas podcast series, Texas 2036 brings together diverse perspectives as we explore the opportunities and challenges facing our state over the next ten years. The views expressed in this program are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Texas 2036, its staff or its Board of Directors.

00:00 — Introduction to the Future of Texas series and today’s justice focus

00:29 — Why population growth puts pressure on Texas courts

01:14 — Guests introduced: Chief Justice Wallace B. Jefferson and Luis Soberon

02:26 — What it means for justice to evolve in a growing state

03:22 — Access to justice and why cost remains the biggest barrier

04:15 — Technology, remote hearings, and how courts have already changed

05:44 — Chief Justice Jefferson on modernizing the Texas court system

07:16 — AI, court technology, and the future of legal access

09:53 — The growing gap between people who have lawyers and people who do not

11:22 — Legal aid, self-help tools, and high-volume civil cases

15:20 — How AI could transform legal work without replacing judges or lawyers

20:04 — How growth affects court demand, specialization, and business courts

24:25 — More judges, more courts, and pressure on judicial elections

27:53 — Can judicial independence survive a hyperpartisan environment?

32:23 — What a chief justice actually does in the Texas court system

37:30 — The data problem in Texas courts and why it matters

41:06 — How better data could reveal backlog, performance, and reform needs

47:30 — Transparency, text reminders, and making courts easier to navigate

53:08 — State policy changes needed to modernize Texas justice

56:16 — The one metric that will show whether Texas got it right by 2036

Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@TexasTalks

In this episode of Texas Talks, host Brad Swail sits down with Marc Levin, Chief Policy Counsel at the Council on Criminal Justice, for a wide-ranging conversation about where criminal justice reform stands in Texas today — and what lawmakers should be focused on next.

Levin reflects on his long history in Texas criminal justice policy, from the 2007 reforms that helped the state avoid building thousands of new prison beds to the current push for a smarter, more data-driven justice system. He explains why public safety remains the core mission of government, but argues that Texas works best when policy is guided by proportionality, fairness, accountability, and evidence about what actually reduces crime and recidivism.

The conversation explores recent reforms from the 89th Texas Legislature, including expanded pretrial funding, parole process changes through the Sunset review of TDCJ, and the constitutional amendment updating bail rules. Levin also discusses why plea bargaining deserves more scrutiny, how better data could help policymakers compare sentences and outcomes across counties, and why transparency matters if Texas wants to know whether its justice system is truly working.

The discussion also covers:

• The importance of pretrial services and front-loading treatment and support

• Geriatric parole and streamlining release decisions for low-risk elderly inmates

• Why Texas still needs better sentencing and recidivism data

• The debate over prison air conditioning and what “smart justice” should mean

• How AI can help solve crimes and inform decisions — without replacing human judgment

• Why veterans need better identification and support within the justice system

• Clean slate proposals for automatic record sealing of minor misdemeanors

• Fentanyl testing strips as a harm-reduction tool to save lives

• “Second look” sentencing for people who committed serious crimes as juveniles

• Why trust in the justice system may be just as important as recidivism rates

Levin makes the case that Texas has already shown it can lower both crime and incarceration at the same time — but only if lawmakers keep focusing on reforms that are practical, measurable, and rooted in outcomes rather than rhetoric.

00:00 — Introduction and Marc Levin joins the podcast

01:05 — Marc Levin’s background and Texas criminal justice reform history

03:38 — What a smarter justice system actually looks like

05:16 — The biggest reforms from the 89th Texas Legislature

06:45 — Pretrial services, treatment, and front-loaded support

08:29 — Plea bargains, coercion, and the “trial penalty”

10:47 — Why Texas needs better sentencing and justice system data

12:45 — TDCJ Sunset review and parole process changes

16:18 — Prison air conditioning and the debate over humane conditions

19:17 — Why solving more crimes matters more than harsher conditions

21:36 — How AI is changing criminal justice policy

24:24 — Risk assessments, facial recognition, and guardrails for AI

29:00 — Priorities for the 90th Texas Legislature

29:45 — Veterans justice reform and better reentry support

34:08 — Clean slate policy and sealing minor misdemeanor records

35:54 — Fentanyl testing strips and harm reduction

38:06 — Second look sentencing for juveniles

40:18 — Is recidivism the best metric for justice reform?

43:26 — Long-term Texas trends in crime, incarceration, and reform

45:13 — Final thoughts: data, trust, and what Texas should do next

Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@TexasTalks