Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.

Follow Jeff Keller on X: https://x.com/jeffkeller1

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Tech Sector Divergence

05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks

08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking

12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits

17:35 Retail Crowding Warning

20:15 2021Parallels

23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout

27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift

29:43 CapEx is Existential

35:17 Meta Breakdown

39:38 Investor Positioning Themes

41:34 Long Biased Long Short

43:55 What Would Break AI?

46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk

49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes

51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook

56:58 Year End Watchlist

58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect

01:01:06 Conclusion

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

https://teucrium.com/corn

Jim Wiederhold, Commodity Indices Product Manager at Bloomberg, joins Monetary Matters for a deep dive into what's really driving this commodities cycle. We start with the AI buildout and why it's quietly becoming one of the biggest demand stories in copper and silver, not just semiconductors. From there, Jim breaks down why central banks keep adding to record gold reserves, and makes the case for why silver could still have room to run. On energy, we get into how much sanctioned oil is still finding its way to market, why refined products have outperformed crude itself, and whether $200 oil is really back on the table. Jim also lays out the case for commodities as a genuine diversifier against stocks and bonds, pointing to how the asset class held up when equities didn't. We close on the "everything rally" — why nearly every corner of the commodity complex is moving at once — and a few overlooked names, from agriculture to industrial metals, that could be next. It's a wide-ranging conversation for anyone trying to understand where commodities go from here. Recorded August 17, 2026.

Pieces discussed:

“Midyear commodity review 2026, Bloomberg Professional Services”:

https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/markets/midyear-commodity-review-2026-2/

Teucrium on X https://x.com/TeucriumETFs

Jim Wiederhold on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim-wiederhold-11901816/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro

In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector.

Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters

Follow Warren Pies on X: https://x.com/WarrenPies

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:21 Why Macro Takes Over

03:19 Earnings Season Structure

05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts

08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced

10:37 Political Pressure on Fed

15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM

17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics

19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium

24:54 How to Position in September

26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks

30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check

34:40 Tech Leadership Needed

38:17 Data Center ROI Debate

40:36 Election and Policy Risk

43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats

47:35 Energy as Diversifier

51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact

55:01 Software Versus Semis

58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations

01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook

01:02:55 Conclusion

In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path.

Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com

Follow High Yield Harry on X: https://x.com/HighyieldHarry

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:45 Year of the Banker

03:38 Private Credit Redemptions

07:04 Retail Flows and Gating

10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring

13:17 Career Pyramid Reality

15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work

17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops

20:27 Operators and Real Economy

23:56 Agents and Human Edge

26:39 Who Gets Displaced?

31:46 Rates and Longer Holds

37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb

41:16 Choosing Your Career Track

47:22 Top Jobs and Trading

51:56 Closing Takeaways

54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs

57:03 Conclusion

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

https://teucrium.com/corn

Luke Gromen — founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) Research — returns to Monetary Matters the same week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of Treasury buybacks, and Luke argues it's the first real admission that the U.S. has what his firm calls an "emerging market hard currency debt spiral problem."

The math that doesn't work: Luke breaks down why entitlements, interest, and veterans benefits now total 105% of federal receipts — and why that obligation is "hard currency" the government can't inflate away, growing 7.5% a year against receipts growing only 4%.

The gold revaluation scenario: Step by step, Luke lays out how the Treasury could legally revalue U.S. gold reserves from $42/oz to $20,000/oz under existing Federal Reserve accounting rules, mechanically depositing roughly $5 trillion into the TGA — and stages it as the FDR "fireside chat" he'd give the country to explain it.

Grading his own Iran war calls: Luke reviews the predictions he made when the U.S. attacked Iran — three out of four hit (the Treasury market breaking before Iran's economy did, Hormuz staying closed longer than expected) — and owns the one he got wrong: a Chinese oil-demand collapse that never came.

Bessent's yen intervention and the $13-14 trillion carry trade: Luke explains the "stylized Instagram" front-run story behind Bessent's yen intervention, and why the offshore dollar carry trade — $65 trillion gross, $22 trillion net in foreign-owned dollar assets — is the real constraint on U.S. policy.

Why gold, not bonds: Luke makes the case that TLT is down 90-95% against gold since 2014 with "another 90-95% to go," and that the S&P 500 is already down 30-50% against gold since 2022 and 2000 respectively.

Hamiltonian economics and the AI CapEx bubble: From Bessent to Jamieson Greer to JD Vance, Luke argues the administration is quietly building tariff policy around 19th-century "neutral reserve asset" economics — while comparing today's AI buildout to the canal, railroad, and telecom bubbles that all preceded it.

Private credit's Treasury problem: Luke connects insurance companies stuffed with illiquid private credit (instead of long-duration Treasuries) to UAE liquidity stress and the Hormuz shutdown, and explains why that's quietly removing a natural buyer from the bond market.

Teucrium on X https://x.com/TeucriumETFs

Luke Gromen on X https://x.com/LukeGromen

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez