The Fed Won’t Pop AI: It Will Save Housing | Blue Door’s Dan Krausz On The Three Neutral Rates, The Liquidity Waterfall, and Why Profits Rising While Employment Falters Is Not Bearish For The Stock Market
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm
Dan Krausz of Blue Door Asset Management joins Monetary Matters to argue that the global economy is currently driven by two dominant macro factors: aggressive fiscal policy and Artificial Intelligence. He breaks down the concept of a "three-speed economy," explaining how 6% fiscal deficits create a "liquidity waterfall" that funds the government first while leaving housing and small businesses in a silent recession. Dan posits the contrarian view that the Federal Reserve may actually need an AI productivity boom to manage long-term inflation and debt, making the potential "AI bubble" a necessary economic tool rather than a threat. Finally, he outlines his three critical rules for positioning in this environment, explaining why investors must "avoid the middle" and why the opportunity is shifting from AI infrastructure to implementation. Recorded on November 18, 2025.
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Is The AI Bubble Popping? | Jack and Max on Data Center Debt, Fragile Markets, and Insurance Companies
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mmAs investors’ outlook on AI capital expenditure sours, Jack and Max explore the rising debt issuance to fund artificial intelligence development, and the faltering share prices of companies with exposure to the “AI factor”: the hyperscalers (particularly Oracle), the chip companies, and the neoclouds such as Coreweave and Nebius. Jack then looks at two insurance companies, Kinsale and Palomar, as insurance sector does its part to hold up the S&P 500. Jack and Max also give an update on Chinese fintechs at the end. Recorded on November 21, 2025.Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96Follow Max on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwietheFollow Monetary Matters on:Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyhSpotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:28 Debt Fueled CapEx Boom
08:23 "AI CEOs Are Building a God"
11:24 The Real Speculative Bubble
15:51 NeoCloud Risk
17:53 Fiscal AI
19:11 Healthcare and Insurance Strength
21:38 Kinsale Capital Group
27:38 Factors Benefiting Insurance
29:12 Palomar Holdings
33:48 Jobs Data and December Fed Meeting
37:26 Chinese Fintech Bloodbath
40:32 Conclusion
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AI Euphoria Is Rolling Over | Lyn Alden on Bitcoin Correction, Who Satoshi Is, Data Center CapEx, and Whether AI Is A Bubble
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: www.vaneck.com/REMXJack
In a change of pace, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Monetary Matters not to talk macro, but to discuss in-depth her views on AI capital expenditures that are driving a majority of the economic growth in the United States. Describing herself as “a moderate bull on AI,” Alden argues that AI is masking the true weakness of the U.S. economy, and that, while AI will prove to transform industries, there could be hiccups in the huge sums that are being spent to build out this AI vision. She notes that “AI euphoria is rolling over” and shares her views on the chip depreciation, with analogues to Bitcoin mining.
Alden shares her view on Bitcoin in 2026 and explains in depth how the difficulty adjustments within Bitcoin support the long-term sustainability of the network. This is the most in-depth on Bitcoin Jack has gone with Lyn Alden in his many interviews going back to 2020. Recorded on November 17, 2025.
Pieces discussed:
“Liquidity, Shutdowns, Tariffs, and Earnings,” November 9, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-11-9/
“Liquidity Pivot and Banking Update,” October 26, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-10-26/
“Two AI Stock Rotations,” October 12, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-10-12/
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Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://x.com/LynAldenContact
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Can Alpha Capture Save Fundamental Long/Short Equity Investing? | David Stemerman CenterBook Partners
This Other People’s Money episode is brought you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm
Fundamental long-short equity investing has been in decline with fewer new fund launches and dwindling assets, but David Stemerman, CEO, CIO and Co-founder of CenterBook Partners believes data clearly shows these investors still have significant investing skill. He argues that single manger hedge fund data collected using alpha capture can be used to construct new portfolios and strategies that will be more attractive for institutional investors. Through a combination of direct payments, data sharing, and partnering with single managers on custom strategies he believes that that alpha capture can revitalize single manager hedge funds. Not all alpha capture strategies are made equal though and one of the biggest problems he is trying to solve is convincing managers and their LPs that alpha capture can be done without harming the returns of the manager.
Read the white paper: https://www.centerbook.com/ACPaper
Become a CenterBook Partners partner fund: https://www.centerbook.com/contributors
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:40 Fiscal.ai
01:34 Single Manager & Tiger Cub Origins
02:45 Fundamental Long Short Equity Under Pressure
07:21 History of Alpha Capture
09:07 Responsible Alpha Capture
16:40 Fiscal.ai
17:58 Why Don’t Managers Adapt to Allocator Demands?
26:48 CenterBook's Current Alpha Capture Strategy
33:14 How Do You Manage External Partners?
35:38 Reactions From LPs at Partner Funds
39:46 Types of Allocators Are Interested in Alpha Capture?
41:53 Types of Managers Partnering with CenterBook
43:04 Is Alpha Theory a Requirement?
46:03 Scale Limits for CenterBook
48:39 Do Most Managers Have Skill?
53:15 Active Extension: The Future of Active Management?
01:03:13 Timeline for Single Manager Active Extensions
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The State of Real Estate Credit | Rithm Capital's Satish Mansukhani on Mortgage Servicing, Commercial Real Estate, and Rithm's Asset Manager Acquisition Strategy
This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN:
https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners
Satish Mansukhani, managing director at Rithm Capital, joins Jack on Monetary Matters for a high-level real estate discussion. Jack and Satish discuss the complexities of real estate investing, credit quality, private credit, and more in an interview that explores the minutiae of this gigantic sector of capital markets. Recorded on October 22nd, 2025.
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96
Follow Satish on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/satishmansukhani/
Satish’s Articles:
“Life in Office—It’s Not All Bad”: https://www.rithmcap.com/insights/life-in-office-it-s-not-all-bad/
“Control Over Access: The Structural Edge in Asset-Backed Finance”: https://www.rithmcap.com/insights/control-over-access-the-structural-edge-in-asset-backed-finance/
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