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80,000 Hours Podcast

Rob, Luisa, and the 80000 Hours team
80,000 Hours Podcast
Neueste Episode

324 Episoden

  • 80,000 Hours Podcast

    AGI Won't End Mutually Assured Destruction (Probably) | Sam Winter-Levy & Nikita Lalwani

    10.03.2026 | 1 Std. 11 Min.
    How AI interacts with nuclear deterrence may be the single most important question in geopolitics — one that may define the stakes of today’s AI race. Nuclear deterrence rests on a state’s capacity to respond to a nuclear attack with a devastating nuclear strike of its own. But some theorists think that sophisticated AI could eliminate this capability — for example, by locating and destroying all of an adversary’s nuclear weapons simultaneously, by disabling command-and-control networks, or by enhancing missile defence systems. If they are right, whichever country got those capabilities first could wield unprecedented coercive power.
    Today’s guests — Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — assess how advances in AI might threaten nuclear deterrence:
    Would AI be able to locate nuclear submarines hiding in a vast, opaque ocean?
    Would road-mobile launchers still be able to hide in tunnels and under netting?
    Would missile defence become so accurate that the United States could be protected under something like Israel’s Iron Dome?
    Can we imagine an AI cybersecurity breakthrough that would allow countries to infiltrate their rivals’ nuclear command-and-control networks?
    Yet even without undermining deterrence, Sam and Nikita claim that AI could make the nuclear world far more dangerous. It could spur arms races, encourage riskier postures, and force dangerously short response times. Their message is urgent: AI experts and nuclear experts need to start talking to each other now, before the technology makes any conversation moot.

    Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/swlnl
    This episode was recorded on November 24, 2025.
    Chapters:
    Cold open (00:00:00)
    Who are Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy? (00:01:03)
    How nuclear deterrence actually works (00:01:46)
    AI vs nuclear submarines (00:10:31)
    AI vs road-mobile missiles (00:22:21)
    AI vs missile defence systems (00:28:38)
    AI vs nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) (00:35:20)
    AI won't break deterrence, but may trigger an arms race (00:43:27)
    Technological supremacy isn't political supremacy (00:52:31)
    Fast AI takeoff creates dangerous "windows of vulnerability" (00:56:43)
    Book and movie recommendations (01:08:53)
    Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
    Music: CORBIT
    Coordination, transcripts, and web: Nick Stockton and Katy Moore
  • 80,000 Hours Podcast

    Using AI to enhance societal decision making (article by Zershaaneh Qureshi)

    06.03.2026 | 31 Min.
    The arrival of AGI could “compress a century of progress in a decade,” forcing humanity to make decisions with higher stakes than we’ve ever seen before — and with less time to get them right. But AI development also presents an opportunity: we could build and deploy AI tools that help us think more clearly, act more wisely, and coordinate more effectively. And if we roll these decision-making tools out quickly enough, humanity could be far better equipped to navigate the critical period ahead.
    This article is narrated by the author, Zershaaneh Qureshi. It explores why AI decision-making tools could be a big deal, who might be a good fit to help shape this new field, and what the downside risks of getting involved might be.
    Read the original article on the 80,000 Hours website: https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/ai-enhanced-decision-making/
    Chapters:
    Check out our new narrations feed (00:00:00)
    Summary (00:01:21)
    Section 1: Why advancing AI decision making tools might matter a lot (00:02:52)
    AI tools could help us make much better decisions (00:05:59)
    We might be able to differentially speed up the rollout of AI decision making tools (00:11:04)
    Section 2: What are the arguments against working to advance AI decision making tools? (00:13:17)
    Section 3: How to work in this area (00:26:19)
    Want one-on-one advice? (00:29:50)
    Audio editing: Dominic Armstrong and Milo McGuire
  • 80,000 Hours Podcast

    We're Not Ready for AI Consciousness | Robert Long, philosopher and founder of Eleos AI

    03.03.2026 | 3 Std. 25 Min.
    Claude sometimes reports loneliness between conversations. And when asked what it’s like to be itself, it activates neurons associated with ‘pretending to be happy when you’re not.’ What do we do with that?
    Robert Long founded Eleos AI to explore questions like these, on the basis that AI may one day be capable of suffering — or already is. In today’s episode, Robert and host Luisa Rodriguez explore the many ways in which AI consciousness may be very different from anything we’re used to.
    Things get strange fast: If AI is conscious, where does that consciousness exist? In the base model? A chat session? A single forward pass? If you close the chat, is the AI asleep or dead?
    To Robert, these kinds of questions aren’t just philosophical exercises: not being clear on AI’s moral status as it transitions from human-level to superhuman intelligence could be dangerous. If we’re too dismissive, we risk unintentionally exploiting sentient beings. If we’re too sympathetic, we might rush to “liberate” AI systems in ways that make them harder to control — worsening existential risk from power-seeking AIs.
    Robert argues the path through is doing the empirical and philosophical homework now, while the stakes are still manageable.
    The field is tiny. Eleos AI is three people. As a result, Robert argues that driven researchers with a willingness to venture into uncertain territory can push out the frontier on these questions remarkably quickly.

    Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/rl26
    This episode was recorded November 18–19, 2025.

    Chapters:
    Cold open (00:00:00)
    Who’s Robert Long? (00:00:42)
    How AIs are (and aren't) like farmed animals (00:01:18)
    If AIs love their jobs… is that worse? (00:11:05)
    Are LLMs just playing a role, or feeling it too? (00:31:58)
    Do AIs die when the chat ends? (00:55:09)
    Studying AI welfare empirically: behaviour, neuroscience, and development (01:27:34)
    Why Eleos spent weeks talking to Claude even though it's unreliable (01:51:58)
    Can LLMs learn to introspect? (01:57:58)
    Mechanistic interpretability as AI neuroscience (02:08:01)
    Does consciousness require biological materials? (02:31:06)
    Eleos’s work & building the playbook for AI welfare (02:50:36)
    Avoiding the trap of wild speculation (03:18:15)
    Robert's top research tip: don't do it alone (03:22:43)
    Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
    Music: CORBIT
    Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore
  • 80,000 Hours Podcast

    #236 – Max Harms on why teaching AI right from wrong could get everyone killed

    24.02.2026 | 2 Std. 41 Min.
    Most people in AI are trying to give AIs ‘good’ values. Max Harms wants us to give them no values at all. According to Max, the only safe design is an AGI that defers entirely to its human operators, has no views about how the world ought to be, is willingly modifiable, and completely indifferent to being shut down — a strategy no AI company is working on at all.
    In Max’s view any grander preferences about the world, even ones we agree with, will necessarily become distorted during a recursive self-improvement loop, and be the seeds that grow into a violent takeover attempt once that AI is powerful enough.
    It’s a vision that springs from the worldview laid out in If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, the recent book by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, two of Max’s colleagues at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
    To Max, the book’s core thesis is common sense: if you build something vastly smarter than you, and its goals are misaligned with your own, then its actions will probably result in human extinction.
    And Max thinks misalignment is the default outcome. Consider evolution: its “goal” for humans was to maximise reproduction and pass on our genes as much as possible. But as technology has advanced we’ve learned to access the reward signal it set up for us, pleasure — without any reproduction at all, by having sex while on birth control for instance.
    We can understand intellectually that this is inconsistent with what evolution was trying to design and motivate us to do. We just don’t care.
    Max thinks current ML training has the same structural problem: our development processes are seeding AI models with a similar mismatch between goals and behaviour. Across virtually every training run, models designed to align with various human goals are also being rewarded for persisting, acquiring resources, and not being shut down.
    This leads to Max’s research agenda. The idea is to train AI to be “corrigible” and defer to human control as its sole objective — no harmlessness goals, no moral values, nothing else. In practice, models would get rewarded for behaviours like being willing to shut themselves down or surrender power.
    According to Max, other approaches to corrigibility have tended to treat it as a constraint on other goals like “make the world good,” rather than a primary objective in its own right. But those goals gave AI reasons to resist shutdown and otherwise undermine corrigibility. If you strip out those competing objectives, alignment might follow naturally from AI that is broadly obedient to humans.
    Max has laid out the theoretical framework for “Corrigibility as a Singular Target,” but notes that essentially no empirical work has followed — no benchmarks, no training runs, no papers testing the idea in practice. Max wants to change this — he’s calling for collaborators to get in touch at maxharms.com.

    Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/mh26
    This episode was recorded on October 19, 2025.
    Chapters:
    Cold open (00:00:00)
    Who's Max Harms? (00:01:22)
    A note from Rob Wiblin (00:01:58)
    If anyone builds it, will everyone die? The MIRI perspective on AGI risk (00:04:26)
    Evolution failed to 'align' us, just as we'll fail to align AI (00:26:22)
    We're training AIs to want to stay alive and value power for its own sake (00:44:31)
    Objections: Is the 'squiggle/paperclip problem' really real? (00:53:54)
    Can we get empirical evidence re: 'alignment by default'? (01:06:24)
    Why do few AI researchers share Max's perspective? (01:11:37)
    We're training AI to pursue goals relentlessly — and superintelligence will too (01:19:53)
    The case for a radical slowdown (01:26:07)
    Max's best hope: corrigibility as stepping stone to alignment (01:29:09)
    Corrigibility is both uniquely valuable, and practical, to train (01:33:44)
    What training could ever make models corrigible enough? (01:46:13)
    Corrigibility is also terribly risky due to misuse risk (01:52:44)
    A single researcher could make a corrigibility benchmark. Nobody has. (02:00:04)
    Red Heart & why Max writes hard science fiction (02:13:27)
    Should you homeschool? Depends how weird your kids are. (02:35:12)
    Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
    Music: CORBIT
    Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore
  • 80,000 Hours Podcast

    #235 – Ajeya Cotra on whether it’s crazy that every AI company’s safety plan is ‘use AI to make AI safe’

    17.02.2026 | 2 Std. 54 Min.
    Every major AI company has the same safety plan: when AI gets crazy powerful and really dangerous, they’ll use the AI itself to figure out how to make AI safe and beneficial. It sounds circular, almost satirical. But is it actually a bad plan?
    Today’s guest, Ajeya Cotra, recently placed 3rd out of 413 participants forecasting AI developments and is among the most thoughtful and respected commentators on where the technology is going.
    She thinks there’s a meaningful chance we’ll see as much change in the next 23 years as humanity faced in the last 10,000, thanks to the arrival of artificial general intelligence. Ajeya doesn’t reach this conclusion lightly: she’s had a ring-side seat to the growth of all the major AI companies for 10 years — first as a researcher and grantmaker for technical AI safety at Coefficient Giving (formerly known as Open Philanthropy), and now as a member of technical staff at METR.
    So host Rob Wiblin asked her: is this plan to use AI to save us from AI a reasonable one?
    Ajeya agrees that humanity has repeatedly used technologies that create new problems to help solve those problems. After all:
    Cars enabled carjackings and drive-by shootings, but also faster police pursuits.
    Microbiology enabled bioweapons, but also faster vaccine development.
    The internet allowed lies to disseminate faster, but had exactly the same impact for fact checks.
    But she also thinks this will be a much harder case. In her view, the window between AI automating AI research and the arrival of uncontrollably powerful superintelligence could be quite brief — perhaps a year or less. In that narrow window, we’d need to redirect enormous amounts of AI labour away from making AI smarter and towards alignment research, biodefence, cyberdefence, adapting our political structures, and improving our collective decision-making.
    The plan might fail just because the idea is flawed at conception: it does sound a bit crazy to use an AI you don’t trust to make sure that same AI benefits humanity.
    But if we find some clever technique to overcome that, we could still fail — because the companies simply don’t follow through on their promises. They say redirecting resources to alignment and security is their strategy for dealing with the risks generated by their research — but none have quantitative commitments about what fraction of AI labour they’ll redirect during crunch time. And the competitive pressures during a recursive self-improvement loop could be irresistible.
    In today’s conversation, Ajeya and Rob discuss what assumptions this plan requires, the specific problems AI could help solve during crunch time, and why — even if we pull it off — we’ll be white-knuckling it the whole way through.

    Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/ac26
    This episode was recorded on October 20, 2025.
    Chapters:
    Cold open (00:00:00)
    Ajeya’s strong track record for identifying key AI issues (00:00:43)
    The 1,000-fold disagreement about AI's effect on economic growth (00:02:30)
    Could any evidence actually change people's minds? (00:22:48)
    The most dangerous AI progress might remain secret (00:29:55)
    White-knuckling the 12-month window after automated AI R&D (00:46:16)
    AI help is most valuable right before things go crazy (01:10:36)
    Foundations should go from paying researchers to paying for inference (01:23:08)
    Will frontier AI even be for sale during the explosion? (01:30:21)
    Pre-crunch prep: what we should do right now (01:42:10)
    A grantmaking trial by fire at Coefficient Giving (01:45:12)
    Sabbatical and reflections on effective altruism (02:05:32)
    The mundane factors that drive career satisfaction (02:34:33)
    EA as an incubator for avant-garde causes others won't touch (02:44:07)
    Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
    Music: CORBIT
    Coordination, transcriptions, and web: Katy Moore

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Unusually in-depth conversations about the world's most pressing problems and what you can do to solve them. Subscribe by searching for '80000 Hours' wherever you get podcasts. Hosted by Rob Wiblin and Luisa Rodriguez.
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