Sources tell Axios that U.S. intelligence agencies seriously doubt that Iran will make the concessions on its nuclear program that Donald Trump expects it to once talks on it progress in earnest. The leaks are striking: They reflect badly on Trump’s ceasefire with Iran and his claims that he prevailed on Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions. Tellingly, the sources also report that JD Vance was a vocal proponent of the deal during internal discussions. This strongly suggests Vance is getting shivved: He’s getting set up to bear the blame if the deal goes south. There’s lots of other evidence of this, too: Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, is vocally describing Vance as the deal’s “architect.” Graham, an Iran hawk, expects Iran to not comply on nukes and clearly wants Vance to get blamed for it. We talked to New Republic contributing editor Virginia Heffernan, a sharp observer of MAGA turmoil. We discuss why Vance is so vulnerable to being shivved on Iran, why this is likely to tarnish his presidential ambitions, and how MAGA will reckon with all this as Trump’s influence wanes.
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