High Capacity

How fast is China moving in space and quantum? Where else is China competing with the US at the technological frontier?

In this episode of the High Capacity podcast, I talk with Michael Kuiken, vice chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and Commissioner Leland Miller about US-China competition in space, quantum technology, data, and critical supply chains. We explore China’s push into reusable rockets and satellite constellations, why quantum competition extends far beyond computing, and how Beijing is turning data into an economic and strategic asset. We also discuss hidden supply chain vulnerabilities and where the US government may need to step in.

We discuss:
• How quickly is China advancing in reusable rockets, launch infrastructure, and alternatives to Starlink?
• What are the differences between quantum computing, sensing, and communications—and where does China stand?
• What could quantum breakthroughs mean for encryption, medical imaging, and military capabilities?
• Why is China treating data as an asset, and how is AI making everyday information more strategically valuable?
• Where are the hidden Chinese chokepoints in pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other critical supply chains?
• How should the US rethink industrial policy and national security in a competition with no finish line?

Links:
US-China Commission’s 2025 Annual Report to Congress:
https://www.uscc.gov/annual-report/2025-annual-report-congress
Space hearing: “The Rocket’s Red Glare: China’s Ambitions to Dominate Space”
https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/rockets-red-glare-chinas-ambitions-dominate-space
Report: “Vying for Quantum Supremacy: U.S.-China Competition in Quantum Technologies”
https://www.uscc.gov/research/vying-quantum-supremacy-us-china-competition-quantum-technologies
Data hearing: “Taking a Bigger Byte: China’s Expanding Strategy for Data Dominance”
https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/taking-bigger-byte-chinas-expanding-strategy-data-dominance
Report: “The People’s Republic of Data: How China Is Turning Data into Capital”
https://www.uscc.gov/research/peoples-republic-data-how-china-turning-data-capital
Supply chains hearing: “Dominance by Design: China Shock 2.0 and the Supply Chain Chokepoints Eroding U.S. Security”
https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/dominance-design-china-shock-20-and-supply-chain-chokepoints-eroding-us-security
For episode transcripts and more, check out the High Capacity newsletter:
https://www.highcapacity.org/
Kyle Chan on Twitter / X:
https://x.com/kyleichan

China’s robots can dance and run marathons—but can they do useful work? And can China make the core components like actuators, reducers, and chips?

In this episode of the High Capacity podcast, I talk with Sunny Cheung, a fellow in China Studies at the Jamestown Foundation, about China’s push into humanoid robots and physical AI. We explore how China is turning its EV supply chains into a robotics ecosystem, how state-owned enterprises create demand for robots, and where China still depends on foreign technology. We also discuss what the US and its allies can do to compete.

We discuss:
• How much progress has China made beyond dancing robots and impressive demonstrations?
• Why are Chinese EV companies moving into humanoid robotics?
• How do state-owned enterprises help robotics companies scale production and gather training data?
• Which components can China produce domestically—and where does it still rely on Japan, Germany, and the US?
• Can world models and simulation provide enough data to train useful robots?
• Could general-purpose AI models like Fable or Astra end up powering the next generation of robotics?
• How can the US and its allies build competitive robotics supply chains?

Links:
Sunny Cheung at the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/analyst/sunny-cheung/

DSET report: “The Age of Robotics: China-West Competition and Taiwan’s Indispensable Role in the Non-Red Supply Chain”
https://dset.tw/en/research/000500-1/

Wilson Center: “The Deployment Gap: Why America Risks Losing the Robotics Race”
https://acrosskarman.wilsoncenter.org/article/deployment-gap-why-america-risks-losing-robotics-race

Jamestown Foundation: Embodied Intelligence: The PRC’s Whole-of-Nation Push into Robotics
https://jamestown.org/embodied-intelligence-the-prcs-whole-of-nation-push-into-robotics/

Sunny Cheung on Twitter / X:
https://x.com/sunnycheungky

Sunny Cheung on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sunnycheungcky/

For episode transcripts and more, check out the High Capacity newsletter:
https://www.highcapacity.org/

Kyle Chan on Twitter / X:
https://x.com/kyleichan

Can the US and China agree to slow down AI development—or even agree on what counts as an AI risk?

In this episode of the High Capacity podcast, I talk with Kendra Schaefer, partner and head of tech policy research at Trivium China, about China’s approach to AI safety. We discuss AI service registration, the regulatory gaps around open-weight releases and AI agents, and why Chinese policymakers may see some risks differently from their US counterparts. We also explore where US-China cooperation on AI safety might begin.

Topics covered:
Why China does not necessarily see regulation as a slowdown

Anthropic’s calls to slow frontier AI development

China’s AI service registration and safety testing process

The challenge of regulating open-weight model releases

AI agents, incident reporting, liability, and traceability

How China assesses technical, social, and geopolitical AI risks

What the US and China could discuss in an AI safety dialogue

Follow Kendra Schaefer and explore Trivium Tech. You can also sign up for Trivium’s free daily brief.

For episode transcripts and more, check out the High Capacity newsletter.

Is the U.S.–China AI competition really a winner-take-all race to AGI? Why has China embraced open-source AI? And are the biggest frontier models actually the greatest security threat?
In this episode, I speak with Alvin Wang Graylin, a Digital Fellow at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, a Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, a professor of AI and technology policy at the University of Washington, and co-author of Our Next Reality.
We discuss:
• China’s AI strategy and its focus on spreading AI throughout the economy
• Why the “decisive strategic advantage” theory may misread the U.S.–China AI relationship
• The prisoner’s dilemma, the stag hunt, and the case for cooperation on AI safety
• China’s open-source AI ecosystem and the debate over open versus closed models
• Why small, specialized AI systems may pose greater security risks than frontier models
• How export controls may be accelerating Chinese AI innovation
• China’s push into robotics, manufacturing, and physical AI
• How China’s technology industry has changed over the past three decades
Read Alvin’s essays, “Misdiagnosing the U.S.–China AI Race” and “The Biggest AI Models Are Not the Biggest Threats.”
You can also follow Alvin on X and LinkedIn, or read his Substack, The Abundanist.
For transcripts and more information, visit the High Capacity newsletter.
Follow host Kyle Chan on X.

How do users in China get access to Claude and ChatGPT through the gray market? What’s really driving China’s apparent “AI optimism”? How is China trying to deal with deepfakes and AI-generated content?

In this episode, I speak with Zilan Qian, a researcher at the Oxford China Policy Lab about the hidden side of China’s AI boom, including:
How Chinese users use “transfer stations” to access American AI models like Claude and ChatGPT
Why Chinese users still want to use Claude and ChatGPT even though there are strong Chinese mode
Why China’s apparent AI optimism is really driven by anxiety about falling behind
China’s push to label AI-generated content—and the problems with watermarks, detection, and false positives

Links:
Zilan’s Oxford page
Zilan on Substack and Twitter / X
How to Buy Cheap Claude Tokens in China
China’s AI optimism isn’t what it seems
Labelling AI-Generated Content in China