CONFLICTED

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Aimen is back with a huge amount of behind-the-scenes information on what’s been happening in the Middle East in the past three weeks—especially on the real reasons the UAE withdrew from OPEC, and what’s been going on inside Donald Trump’s head as he tries to chart a course to victory in the Iran War.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

The recent discovery of HUGE shale oil reserves in the UAE

The Mar-a-Lago deal the UAE struck with Trump

Why the recent OPEC shake-up had NOTHING to do with Saudi Arabia

The truth about UAE and Saudi attacks on Iran

Did the UAE, Saudi, and Qatar really beg Trump not to resume the war?

How Iran’s military capability remains STRONGER than people think

The corruption behind Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the Iran War

The benefits and liability of Trump as a War Leader

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
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In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Marc David Baer, Professor of International History at the London School of Economics, about his new book Children of Abraham: The Story of Jewish-Muslim Relations.

Marc discusses:

The recent stabbing in Golders Green, North London

The myth of utopian co-existence and the counter-myth of total antagonism

The earliest encounters of Jews and Muslims in Arabia

The Qur'an's mixed messaging about Jews

The reality of Sharia dhimmitude laws

Jewish-Muslim relations in the Khazar Kingdom, in Al-Andalus, and in the Ottoman Empire

Colonialism and the rupture of Jewish-Muslim relations

Antisemitism, Islamophobia, and Jewish-Muslim solidarity today

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠⁠

Find Marc on X: https://x.com/MarcDavidBaer1

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And YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠⁠

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
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As we eagerly await Aimen’s return to Conflicted next week, today Wassim Nasr returns to the show. As only Wassim can, he draws on his expertise of the Sahel to explain the remarkable events in Mali over the past several weeks — events which Aimen forecast on the show back in January.

Wassim explains:

France’s failed counterterrorism strategy in Mali

JNIM’s emergence from AQIM and local insurgencies

Iyad Ag Ghaly’s political and jihadist leadership

The junta’s repression and strategic miscalculations

The JNIM–FLA alliance in northern Mali

The 25 April 2026 coordinated attacks

Negotiating with Islamists after the War on Terror

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow Wassim on X: https://x.com/SimNasr

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
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In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Sir Vince Cable, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, about his new book Eclipsing the West: China, India and the forging of a new world.

Sir Vince discusses:

Postcolonial state-building, development economics, and his formative experiences in Kenya

Globalisation, financialisation, and the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis

The rise of China and India as “superstates” in a new tripolar world

Geo-economics, US–China rivalry, and the breakdown of the liberal international order

Democracy versus authoritarianism and the crisis of liberal governance

Ideology, nationalism, and the limits of rationality in geopolitics

Multipolarity, global disorder, climate crisis, and the future of world order

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠

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And YouTube: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced by Thomas Small & Ross Field and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
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Aimen's in the thick of it this week so isn't able to appear on the show. Sitting in for him is Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli researcher and analyst, and a doctoral student at Princeton University. During field research in Iraq in 2023, she was kidnapped by Kata'ib Hezbollah and held in captivity for over two years, suffering torture and solitary confinement.

In what we hope will be the first of many appearances on Conflicted, Elizabeth discusses:

Saddam Hussein’s faith campaign and the rise of Shia religious politics in Iraq

The Sadrist movement in Iraq and Muqtada al-Sadr

The politicisation of sectarian identity in post-2003 Iraq

Iraqi militias as criminal-political enterprises engaged in in theft, extortion, oil smuggling, and dollar smuggling

The difference between Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah

The impact of militia rule on ordinary civilian life

Iraq’s extreme inequality despite its oil and gas wealth

The 2003 Iraq War and the debate over American responsibility

Iraqi elite agency and the failures of Iraq’s political class

The 2010 Iraqi election crisis and Nouri al-Maliki’s return to power

The Iraqi constitution and the failure of constitutional democracy

Iraq’s dependence on oil revenues and the Strait of Hormuz

The impact of the current Iran war on Iraq’s economy

Iranian attacks on Iraqi oil exports and oil tankers

The U.S. military presence in Iraq after ISIS

American influence over Iraqi prime ministerial politics

Nouri al-Maliki, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Ali al-Zaidi

Fa’iq Zaidan and the power of Iraq’s judiciary

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Elizabeth's personal website: https://elizabeth-tsurkov.net/en/

Find Elizabeth on X: https://x.com/LizHurra

Find Elizabeth on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-tsurkov-79491b15/

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices