Unfortunately the prediction in the previous podcast that the Trump administration will continue down the path of being an unreliable security partner is proving to be correct. US politics is swerving in a dangerous direction of dismantling many aspects of how a government functions - a process that has historical roots. Practical manifestations are things like on the one hand approving the sale of weapons to Ukraine, but on the other hand severely limiting how they can be used. The results of the Elbridge Colby revenue into AUKUS are expected by late November - and we predict that the sale of second-hand nuclear submarines will only go ahead if Australia can meet certain conditions, such as lifting Defence spending to 3.5% of GDP. Finally some speculation about why the Mogami frigate wasn't selected for SEA 3000 two years ago since it's now apparent it was always the preferred choice of the RAN. Could it be that two years ago only the basic Mogami was under construction but by delaying the decision until now the upgraded version is under contract meaning the Navy will get a much bigger ship with twice the number of VLS cells than the ship of 2023? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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19:54
Episode 106
- The dominant international security event was the disgraceful Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, with the US President fawning and grovelling in front of his war criminal Russian counterpart. The result was nothing positive for Ukraine - no ceasefire and no new sanctions, only talk of territory being given to Russia. It is impossible to comprehend why President Trump cannot understand that it is Russia that launched an unprovoked, illegal invasion of Ukraine. This event has profound implications for Australia, demonstrating once again that the US is no longer a reliable ally. Then a bit more about SEA 3000 and details of how Defence cooked the books, outrageously inflating the price of the TKMS bid designed to deny them a competitive advantage over MHI. Finally, some positives about RoK-Australia defence cooperation. The Koreans are very keen - so Australia now needs to seize the opportunity and make things happen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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20:31
Episode 105
Congratulations to Japan and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for their success in being selected as the supplier of General Purpose Frigates under SEA 3000. The attractive features of the Japanese ship are well known - stealth characteristics, high levels of automation, a fixed-face radar array and 32 VLS cells. However, this was followed by a deceitful background briefing by senior Australian figures that was full of provable untruths. This included information suggesting that the losing bid from German supplier TKMS was inflated by Defence using the false pretext that it came with a different set of weapons. No it did not. Without any evidence, Defence had also concluded that TKMS could not meet the schedule when there is ample evidence that they could do so without difficulty. One wonders why a competition even took place when the outcome looks predetermined. Then there's more misleading information from Defence Minister Richard Marles who continues to insist incorrectly that Australia has already reviewed the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine decision. And once again it looks like US President Donald Trump is getting ready to sell out Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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18:55
Episode 104
We promised some analysis of the UK-Australia AUKUS submarine agreement and to describe it as a framework would be generous. It has a lot of standard legal boilerplate about tariffs and tax refunds, but the substance has many gaps. It can be cancelled with 12 months notice and seems to leave all of the power in the hands of the UK government. Next - the US seems to be becoming a less reliable ally on a daily basis. President Donald Trump is now using tariffs as a political cudgel, not just an economic one of very doubtful effectiveness. Defence talks with Australia scheduled for the next few days have been scrapped and it's unclear if the annual AUSMIN talks will go ahead as scheduled. Our government remains supremely confident that no one should worry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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19:29
Episode 103
There has been quite a bit of news about AUKUS Pillar One based on the visit to Australia of a Royal Navy aircraft carrier and a couple of Ministers. Apparently there's going to be a 50-year treaty about the AUKUS submarine between our two countries, with the document soon to be tabled in Parliament. This is probably because we can't get a treaty with the US, so let's have one with the UK instead - but it's strategic nonsense and all of the talk of industrial cooperation are just empty words. We buy a lot from the UK and in return they buy nothing from us. Turning to the US, in testimony to the Senate, incoming Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Daryl Caudle has expressed doubts about the ability of industry to produce enough Virginia class submarines for their own needs, let alone Australia's. This information will of course be ignored by our government because it doesn't suit their warped view of reality. And SEA 3000 is reaching a crucial point with the possibility of a winner being selected in the next few days. Assuming that the competition is genuine, it's not helpful that plenty of Australian commentators are telling Japan that they have it in the bag. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
These podcasts are a way of shedding a bit more light on Defence decisions – particularly acquisitions – because the system has become secretive and taxpayers have a right to know what’s going on. But it’s even worse than that with Defence sometimes putting out information that is misleading and in some cases plain wrong. We discuss the Defence Strategic Review and debunk the claims that it is some sort of radical and positive move. No it is not. We also have a few words about the outrageous decision to purchase the SURTASS towed array sonar via FMS and preview the ANAO report into the Hunter class frigate program. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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