Academy Anonymous

Final Oscar Predictions (Part 3) — Acting, Directing, Writing & Best Picture | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS
In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we conclude our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 3), breaking down the Academy Awards’ most talked-about races — Directing, Screenwriting, Acting, and Best Picture.
Pundits insist these categories are “locked,” but history says otherwise. We’re tracking the hidden vulnerabilities, surprise snubs, and late-stage breakthroughs that could define nomination morning — and help you perfect your Oscar ballot.
We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:
Best Casting
The Academy’s newest category: Will voters default to the status quo, or can two international films crash the party and make a statement?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Can anyone crack the consensus five — from Mary Shelley and Denis Johnson adaptations to Hamnet, Alien Bosses, and the ever-present PTA?
Best Original Screenplay
Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke threaten to spoil spots long reserved for celebrated international films, while Sinnersand Marty Supreme ride undeniable momentum.
Best Supporting Actor
Beyond the perceived “safe” picks (One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value), are Paul Mescal or Jacob Elordi far more vulnerable than expected? And who’s waiting to capitalize on a major snub?
Best Supporting Actress
A volatile three-way race anchors the category, but the final slots are wide open. Can recent SAG snubs be overcome? Are surprise veterans or pop-culture wildcards ready to surge? Expect chaos.
Best Actor
The most competitive acting race of the year — and someone big is missing. Is it Michael B. Jordan or Joel Edgerton? Can Jesse Plemons convert SAG momentum? Is Wagner Moura truly safe?
Best Actress
Buckley is the clear frontrunner, while Chase Infiniti carries the category’s strongest momentum. Renate Reinsve capitalizes on European love, while Rose Byne defeats the odds. The final slot becomes a high-stakes showdown between a favorite and a comeback-gal.
Best Director
Clear locks, international threats, shocking snubs, and one potential jaw-dropper that could redefine the race entirely.
Best Picture
Studio heavyweights, Netflix contenders, acclaimed international films, and underdogs all feel “safe”… but only one slot remains. Will it go to another daring foreign-language breakout or a late-career auteur passion project?
If you want to understand where the Oscar races are actually fragile, and where the Academy is most likely to surprise, this is the episode to hear before nomination morning.
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Final Oscar Predictions — Shorts, Documentary, Sound, VFX & Makeup | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS
In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we continue our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 2), breaking down some of the Academy Awards’ most volatile categories — where surprises, snubs, and late-breaking momentum define the race.
We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:
Live-Action Short Film — socially and politically urgent stories dominate, but can comedy or crowd-pleasers break through?
Animated Short Film — why adult-driven animation should outperform traditional, family-friendly shorts
Documentary Short Film — films reflecting current U.S. political and social unrest lead the field
Documentary Feature — the most unpredictable branch of the Academy, where presumed frontrunners are always at risk
Best Visual Effects — blockbuster spectacle regains control as prestige titles like Frankenstein and Sinners miss key ground
Best Sound — One Battle After Another and Sinners feel secure, while Sirât challenges Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup & Hairstyling — why international films and transformative real-life portrayals have the advantage
Whether you’re filling out an Oscar ballot, tracking awards season momentum, or just love dissecting the Academy Awards, this episode dives deep into the races most likely to shock on nomination morning.
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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
The DGA reveals the top five favorites for the Oscars Best Picture race
SENTIMENTAL VALUE gets shutout at the Screen Actors Guild Actors Awards
Cinematographers prefer MARTY SUPREME over HAMNET
WEAPONS, F1 fly at the Producers Guild Awards while AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD flop
BUGONIA staging a major Oscar comeback with impressive showing at British Academy’s BAFTA Awards
Final predictions for Best Animated Feature
Dreamworks’ THE BAD GUYS 2 and Pixar’s ELIO duel for final spot in Animated Feature race
Can French animation rule at the Oscars with ARCO, LITTLE AMELIE and A MAGNIFICENT LIFE?
Final Predictions for Best Original Score
Decoding the connection between Best Picture and the Original Score category
MARTY SUPREME beat too new age for Oscars’ music branch?
F1 and SIRĀT likely enemies across Oscar categories, face-off for final slot in Original Score
Final Predictions for Best Original Song
Stephan Schwartz to finally get back into Song race with WICKED: FOR GOOD
Double nominations for SINNERS for Original Song?
Diane Warren hunts for first competitive Oscar win
Final Predictions for Best Costume Design
A loophole in the Costume category might leave a Best Picture favorite on the outs
HEDDA and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN targeting an upset
Final Predictions for Best Production Design
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD duel for scraps among production design favorites
Final Predictions for Best Cinematography
Not enough space for Best Picture frontrunners FRANKENSTEIN, MARTY SUPREME and HAMNET
Final Predictions for Best Film Editing
Breaking down the “veteran” issue smothering the film editing category
F1 to test editor’s love for racing films
Final Predictions for Best International Film
NEON films tries to wrap up the rare perfect category with ALL 5 nominations!
Venice Film Festival and THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB to haunt the fate of NO OTHER CHOICE
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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
MARTY SUPREME is a runaway Christmas hit for A24, Timothée Chalamet is King of the Box-Office
Spain's SIRĀT to explode onto Oscar scene with surprise nominations, but can it really crash Best Picture?
Will SINNERS, TRAIN DREAMS and ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER land first time nominations for their cinematographers at the ASC guild award?
Cinematographers Guild to sideline international films in their annual lineup for Best Cinematography
Can multiple foreign films pull off an upset at the Directors Guild of America?
Guillermo del Toro's FRANKENSTEIN looks to cement itself as a top 5 Best Picture movie with DGA nomination
Can MARTY SUPREME three-peat nominations at the SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA.... or did it peak too late?
Will the Producers Guild of America resuscitate flailing box-office hits AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD?
WEAPONS hoping to ride Hollywood horror-renaissance into PGA Top 10 and SAG Ensemble nominations
HEDDA's Tessa Thompson and SONG SUNG BLUE's Kate Hudson look to leap BUGONIA's Emma Stone and TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE's Amanda Seyfried at the Screen Actors Guild
Can Wagner Moura leverage NARCOS visibility into a SAG Best Actor nomination for THE SECRET AGENT?
Is WICKED: FOR GOOD poised to receive a complete shut-out at the Screen Actors Guild? 
HAMNET, SENTIMENTAL VALUE and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT look for a boost on Golden Globes weekend
Critics Choice Awards vote for Timothée Chalamet, Jesse Buckley, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan, but one speech seems to seal the deal and another appears to have blown the race wide open!
Which Critics Choice winning actor is flirting with a snub and may end up on the cutting room floor at the Oscars?
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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
A few words of remembrance for Rob Reiner, Michelle Reiner and James Ransone.
Can AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH pull a GODFATHER/LORD OF THE RIGNS and get all 3 installments nominated for Best Picture? Our Oscar take after watching the latest chapter.
THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB is undeniably compelling, and could absolutely sneak into the final Best Picture Ten; our Oscar take after screening the film.
Going over the snubs and surprises from the 98th Oscars shortlists: who’s making an impression (SIRAT!) and who’s falling behind (THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE!).
Previewing the Critics Choice Awards: predicting the winners in every category.
Predicting the National Society of Film Critics winners and runner-ups.
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