Manifold

Are we in an AI bubble? 

Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation. 

Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs. 
Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Conference Takeaways

(03:21) - AI Capability Leap

(07:36) - Both Things True

(08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks

(10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle

(18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals

(31:45) - IPO and Bubble Fallout

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 
https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Brian Chau is a mathematician, machine learning specialist, and the founder of Effort News, an independent media outlet focused on data-first, document-led investigative journalism.

https://www.effort.news/
https://x.com/brianchau57

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:14) - Network School Fallout

(14:17) - Effort News Origins

(17:24) - AI Reporting Workflow

(35:41) - Medicare Medicaid Momentum

(37:05) - Epstein Files AI Law

(43:27) - Biolabs Base Rates Debate

(47:27) - Business Model And AI Math Finale

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 
https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Machine God is a feature-length AI documentary film, created by Steve Hsu, John Greer, and Lei Huang. This episode discusses the film's creation and content.
Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Meet the Filmmakers

(02:06) - Berkeley AI Boomtown Origins

(19:23) - Techno Capital and the Pause Plea

(38:55) - Why Slow Down AI

(41:40) - Recursive Self Improvement

(46:01) - Gradual Disempowerment

(51:48) - Film Release and Closing

–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 
https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dr. Thomas Fink is an Anglo-American physicist, author, and entrepreneur who serves as the founding Director of the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS).

He studied physics at Caltech, where he won the Fisher Prize, and earned his PhD at Cambridge University. His research focuses on statistical physics, combinatorics, and evolvable systems, using these tools to gain insights into physical and biological systems.

In 2011, Dr. Fink founded LIMS, the UK's first independent research centre for theoretical physics and mathematics. Located in the historic Royal Institution in Mayfair, LIMS operates like a university research department but with no teaching or administrative duties, allowing its researchers to focus entirely on full-time, curiosity-driven discovery.

London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS): https://lims.ac.uk/
Dr. Thomas Fink's Profile at LIMS: https://lims.ac.uk/thomas-fink/

Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Thomas Fink: Caltech, Cambridge, CNRS Paris

(07:27) - Rethinking Academia

(13:05) - Building LIMS

(31:18) - Saving Basic Science

(33:46) - Endowments Versus Governments

(40:28) - AI Reshaping Research Culture

(52:17) - Closing Thoughts

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 
https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Bohan Lou is a partner at Chemistry Ventures, based in SF.
https://x.com/loubohan
Bohan's report on the venture ecosystem in China:
https://x.com/loubohan/status/2082143914924851449
Chapter Markers:

(01:42) - Venture Capital in China; Bohan’s Shanghai Roots

(11:15) - Chemistry Fund and China Investing

(20:04) - China Trip and Venture Reality Check

(32:18) - Pressure Cooker: Founder Exits and Financial Liability

(33:50) - Variation in Founder-Friendly investment environment

(46:52) - AI Models and Open Source

(58:56) - Big Picture and Wrap Up

–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 
https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.