Still Counting

Nate, Galen, and Clare dive into the latest midterms numbers, including FLIPR’s updated forecast giving Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate and the final Times/Siena national poll of the election, which finds Trump’s approval rating at a new low. They also discuss concerns about polling accuracy after a firm admits to faking its data, and the problems that raises for pollsters, candidates, and the country. Then, they take a look at the issues Democrats and Republicans are focusing on as seen through their political ads and analyze what that tells us about the state of the midterms and what campaigns are hearing internally from voters.
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Clare, Nate, and Galen check the latest in the FLIPR midterms forecast and discuss whether the election has solidified, or if Republicans can mount a last ditch recovery. Then, in “Do You Buy It?” they put conventional wisdom to the test, unpacking the latest midterms headlines and examining whether the assumptions behind the stories actually hold up. They close by answering audience questions about the Epstein files’ impact on the midterms and whether a 20th century midterms election offers parallels to the current one.
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You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Galen, Clare, and Nate check the latest FLIPR forecasts for the House and Senate before discussing the closer than expected Senate race in Minnesota. Then it’s time for the first-ever Still Counting Draft! The hosts make their picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, including frontrunners like AOC and Gavin Newsom. They also talk about the reason for doing a draft now and after the midterms and Nate explains why there are only two good candidate options.
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Nate, Galen, and Clare break down the latest midterm polling in some of the most competitive congressional contests and Democrats’ continued edge. In Maine, they discuss the NYT/Siena numbers and what Senator Susan Collins’ lead over Troy Jackson in that poll indicates about the race. In Ohio, they unpack what Republican Senator Jon Husted’s low name recognition means for his unusual matchup against Sherrod Brown. And in Alaska, they zoom out on the discourse around Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her alleged mistreatment of staffers.
You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

On today’s episode, Galen, Clare, and Nate take a closer look at the latest midterms polling, where the data could be wrong, the likelihood for errors, and whether the apparent blue-wave story is as convincing as it looks. Then, they stress-test the case for and against the polls, examining both the bull and bear cases for believing the numbers.
You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.